The Great Debate: To Start or Not To Start?

Fantasy Philosopher - October 2, 2026

Injuries are already piling up, making our start/sit decisions more important but also more difficult.

As always, if the players on this list don’t apply to your specific lineup, please consult your favorite expert rankings or reach out with your specific quandaries.

Quarterback

To Start: Kyler Murray vs. Miami Dolphins

It certainly doesn’t feel comfortable starting Kyler after his first full game with the Vikings last week in Tampa Bay. Despite coming away with a win, he was downright bad, completing only 15 passes for 168 yards and one touchdown while adding just 17 yards on the ground.

He’ll now be without Justin Jefferson, who has been ruled out with the ankle sprain he suffered in Week 3.

You may have more trustworthy options than Kyler, but if he can’t put together a good fantasy performance against this Miami defense, I’m not sure what he’s doing as the Vikings’ starter. Through three weeks, opposing quarterbacks are averaging 231 passing yards, 2.3 passing touchdowns, and 19.6 fantasy points per game in four-point passing touchdown scoring against the Dolphins. Miami has now allowed seven passing touchdowns in three games, and the defense has yet to record a sack.

To Start: Jacoby Brissett @ New York Giants

We just saw Brissett’s ceiling in San Francisco. He threw 52 times, completing 38 passes for 280 yards and two touchdowns, while also sneaking in a rushing score for 25.6 fantasy points. Arizona clearly trusts him to carry volume when the game script demands it.

However, starting him still requires a little bit of faith. Just two weeks ago, he threw for only 95 yards against Seattle, and unlike some of the other streaming quarterbacks, he isn’t going to consistently bail you out with his legs.

The Giants’ secondary has become one of the softer matchups for opposing passing games, in large part because of injuries at cornerback. They’ve allowed seven passing touchdowns through three games, including four to Matthew Stafford, and opposing quarterbacks are averaging nearly 17 fantasy points per game. Even better for Brissett, New York has recorded only one sack all season and just lost edge rusher Brian Burns for the year with a torn ACL. For a veteran quarterback who does his best work from a clean pocket, that matters.

Brissett also has the added benefit of potentially being a multi-week streaming option, with Arizona drawing Detroit next week.

Not to Start: Drake Maye @ Buffalo Bills

This would have sounded insane a month ago. Maye was the QB2 in fantasy last season and finished second in MVP voting, while Buffalo has hardly been an automatic quarterback fade. The Bills have already allowed 763 passing yards and seven passing touchdowns through three games, with C.J. Stroud and Jared Goff both scoring 20+ fantasy points against them.

But I need to see Maye look like 2025 Drake Maye again before putting him back into my lineup.

Through three games, he has thrown for just 585 yards with one touchdown and six interceptions. He has been sacked nine times, has yet to finish as a top-20 fantasy quarterback, and the Patriots are averaging 12 points per game.

The situation around him isn’t getting any better, either. A.J. Brown remains out, starting RG Mike Onwenu is already on IR with a broken ankle, and his replacement, Greg Van Roten, has now joined him on IR. That depleted line has to deal with a Buffalo front that ranks sixth in both sacks and pressures despite blitzing at one of the league’s lowest rates, led by Greg Rousseau’s six sacks.

Maybe this is eventually the week Maye snaps out of it. His talent and rushing ability are exactly why I don't view this as a season-long panic situation. But until we actually see the offense stabilize, I'm not starting him on the road against Buffalo when there are viable streaming options available.

Not to Start: Justin Herbert @ Seattle Seahawks

Seattle finally showed some cracks in what was looking like the league’s best defense last week, allowing Marcus Mariota to throw 3 touchdowns in Washington’s 33-point performance. Both starting safeties were out, so there is at least a path to talking yourself into Herbert as a bounce-back play.

I’m not there yet.

Herbert has thrown for 627 yards, 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions through three games, while the Chargers have scored just 14, 14 and 16 points. He has also taken 8 sacks behind an offensive line that continues to look like one of the biggest problems with this offense.

Now he has to go into Seattle against a defense that has allowed just 425 net passing yards through three games, the fewest in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging only 12.2 fantasy points per game against them, fifth-fewest in the league, and Seattle has already intercepted 4 passes. If you take away Marcus Mariota’s 20.4 fantasy points last week, opposing quarterbacks are averaging just 8.2 fantasy points per game against Seattle.

Running Back

To Start: Braelon Allen @ Chicago Bears

Allen has not been startable so far but has generally been viewed as a premium handcuff to starter Breece Hall, who has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Bears. That’s why Allen was either already stashed on fantasy benches or became a top addition off the waiver wire this week.

When Hall left last week’s game against Detroit, Allen took over the backfield. He handled all six running-back touches over the Jets’ final two drives, while Isaiah Davis did not record a touch at all. Davis could still be involved, particularly as a receiver, but last week gave us a pretty clear indication of who is most likely to get the first opportunity with Hall out.

Chicago has allowed 286 rushing yards to running backs through three games at 4.8 yards per carry. Chuba Hubbard scored twice against them in Week 1, Aaron Jones ran for 105 yards in Week 2, and Saquon Barkley averaged 5.5 yards per carry last week.

If you want to play it conservatively and see exactly how Allen looks and how the backfield split shakes out before potentially starting him in Week 5 if Breece is out again, I’d understand. But this is the scenario you stashed him for, or spent waiver priority and FAAB trying to get him for. If we’re not willing to start him now, when are we?

To Start: Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs. Indianapolis Colts

I’m still not a huge believer in Croskey-Merritt as a talent, and Rachaad White has looked like the better back lately. But White has now been ruled out with a shoulder injury, while Washington’s decision to bring Austin Ekeler back may be another indication of concern over the backfield depth behind him. Whether Ekeler is active, or how much he can realistically handle immediately, remains unclear.

That leaves Croskey-Merritt, who is already averaging 16.7 touches per game and has received 5 of Washington’s 12 running-back carries in the red zone. The efficiency hasn’t been good, but the opportunity could grow considerably this week.

Indianapolis was shredded by running backs over the first two weeks, as Derrick Henry went for 163 total yards and 3 touchdowns before Kenneth Walker followed with 178 total yards. Then the Colts suddenly held David Montgomery and Woody Marks to just 48 combined rushing yards and 69 total yards last week. Considering how poorly Houston has run the ball everywhere, I’m not ready to assume Indianapolis suddenly fixed its run defense.

Not To Start: Omarion Hampton @ Seattle Seahawks

Hampton has been one of fantasy’s biggest disappointments so far, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry with only 2 catches through three games. He also lost a fumble in each of the first two weeks, which is especially concerning for an offense already struggling to sustain drives.

Now he has to go into Seattle. The Seahawks have allowed only 261 rushing yards through three games at 3.3 yards per carry and have yet to allow a rushing touchdown. No opposing running back has even reached 60 rushing yards against them in eight straight games dating back to last season.

The matchup up front is ugly too. The interior of the Chargers’ offensive line has been its biggest weakness, while Seattle has been one of the league’s best defenses at preventing successful and explosive runs.

Hampton may be difficult to actually bench with running back injuries already piling up, and Keaton Mitchell dealt with an ankle issue this week but practiced fully Friday and is good to go. He could absolutely get 18-plus touches and fall into the end zone. You may not have a better option. But at this point, we need to be realistic about what he has shown us rather than continuing to start him because of what he cost us in August.

Not To Start: Ollie Gordon II and Jaylen Wright @ Minnesota Vikings

With De’Von Achane out for the season, a lot of FAAB was spent trying to replace him, most likely on Gordon after he handled 20 touches and scored last week. But this backfield is far from settled. Wright entered the season listed ahead of Gordon and received the only backup carry in Week 1. Wright was inactive last week, while Gordon’s 20-touch workload came after Achane exited with his season-ending knee injury. Miami still lists Wright ahead of Gordon on the depth chart, and he appears to be trending toward a return this week.

This also isn’t the week I want to guess. Minnesota has held opposing running backs to 200 rushing yards on 64 carries, just 3.1 yards per carry, with zero touchdowns through three games. No running back has reached 100 scrimmage yards against them, and now Miami takes this uncertain backfield into Minnesota against one of the league’s best defenses.

If you have Gordon or Wright, I’d leave them on the bench this week and monitor how the work is divided. The information we get Sunday will probably be more valuable than the fantasy points we’re risking by starting either one.

Wide Receiver

To Start: Josh Downs vs. Washington Commanders

Without Alec Pierce last week, Daniel Jones concentrated his targets almost entirely on Josh Downs, Tyler Warren and Keenan Allen. Downs led the team with 11 targets, Warren saw 10 and Allen drew 9. Together, they accounted for 30 of Jones’ 36 pass attempts against Houston. Allen turned that volume into the best fantasy day of the group, catching 6 passes for 63 yards and a touchdown.

Now Allen is questionable with a groin injury after missing Friday’s practice and appears headed toward a game-time decision. If he sits, Downs could be looking at an even more concentrated target share alongside Warren.

Washington is an especially appealing matchup for pass catchers and one we should keep targeting until the Commanders prove otherwise. Opposing wide receivers have totaled 573 yards and 6 touchdowns against them through three games. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 128-yard, two-touchdown explosion last week certainly inflates those numbers, but even without him, Philadelphia’s receivers went for 121 yards and a score in Week 1, while Dallas followed with 216 yards and 2 touchdowns.

To Start: Stefon Diggs vs. Indianapolis Colts

Terry McLaurin has been added to the injury report with a hamstring issue and is questionable, while Rachaad White has been ruled out. Even if McLaurin plays, any limitation could push more work toward Diggs, while White’s absence removes another established target from the passing game.

Diggs already saw 7 of Mariota’s 31 attempts last week, so there was enough involvement to make him interesting even before those injuries potentially opened up the target tree further.

Indianapolis was shredded by wide receivers over the first two weeks, allowing 429 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns to the position. Houston managed only 109 WR yards and no touchdowns against them last week, but that came from an offense that has struggled badly without Nico Collins.

Not To Start: Wan'Dale Robinson and Carnell Tate @ Baltimore Ravens

Robinson and Tate are both coming off their best games of the season, but even those performances showed the problem with trusting this passing game. Robinson caught 7 of 11 targets for 57 yards and a touchdown, while Tate went 6-for-58 on 9 targets. That’s 20 combined targets for only 115 yards, with Robinson scoring Cam Ward’s first and still only passing touchdown of the season.

And that came against a Giants defense that had already allowed 725 total yards over its first two games. If Ward were playing better, Robinson and Tate could have come away with much bigger performances.

Baltimore isn’t necessarily a matchup we need to fear, either, especially with Trey Hendrickson now out. Ward should have a better chance to operate without Baltimore’s best pass rusher coming after him, and Tennessee will probably be forced into another pass-heavy game script.

The problem is that Ward hasn’t shown us he can turn that volume into enough fantasy production. Robinson and Tate should continue to see targets, but at the deepest fantasy position, I’d rather trust a more functional passing offense until Tennessee proves it can support these receivers consistently.

Not To Start: Malik Washington and Chris Bell @ Minnesota Vikings

With De’Von Achane out for the season and Caleb Douglas out again, Washington and Bell suddenly look like two of Miami’s most important pass catchers. That made both legitimate waiver-wire targets this week, especially Bell, whose rookie status and 4-catch, 67-yard performance against Kansas City give him some intriguing unknown upside.

Washington is the safer bet for volume after drawing 10 targets last week, while Bell saw 7. But this is exactly the kind of situation I’d rather monitor than immediately trust. Malik Willis is still difficult to rely on, and now these young receivers have to go on the road against one of the league’s best defenses.

If you added either one, I’d keep them on the bench this week if possible and use Sunday to learn how concentrated this passing game really becomes without Achane and Douglas. The opportunity is interesting. The matchup and quarterback play are not.

Tight End

To Start: Darren Waller vs. Detroit Lions

Waller still isn’t a locked-in weekly start because Carolina continues to rotate tight ends. His snap share has climbed from 35% in Week 1 to 44% in Week 2 and 51% last week, but Tommy Tremble and Mitchell Evans are both still playing enough to create some frustrating volatility.

This week is worth chasing anyway. Jalen Coker is questionable with a quad injury after leaving last week’s game, while Xavier Legette has already been ruled out. Even if Coker plays, there’s some risk he isn’t at full strength or aggravates the injury again.

Detroit has also been absolutely shredded by tight ends, allowing 29 catches for 351 yards and 6 touchdowns through three games. Dalton Kincaid went 7-95-1 against them, Kenyon Sadiq followed with 7-105-1, and even secondary tight ends have gotten into the end zone.

To Start: Tucker Kraft @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kraft has been a disappointment through three weeks, catching just 9 passes for 106 yards with no touchdowns despite seeing 17 targets. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden have both been good, giving Jordan Love plenty of other places to go with the football.

Green Bay’s run game has been dreadful, averaging an NFL-low 48.7 rushing yards per game, while Tampa Bay has allowed just 76 rushing yards per game, second-fewest in the league. That should push even more of the offense onto Love.

The concern is whether Tampa Bay can keep the game competitive with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels making his first NFL start. The Bucs defense has played well overall, including holding Kyler Murray and Minnesota to just 230 total yards last week, but Green Bay’s inability to run should keep the offense leaning heavily on the passing game regardless.

Not To Start: Isaiah Likely vs. Arizona Cardinals

Just like with Jameis Winston, this looks like a matchup we should want to exploit. Arizona has allowed tight ends 16 catches for 187 yards and 2 touchdowns through three games, including 5 catches for 58 yards to David Njoku and 6 catches for 82 yards and 2 touchdowns to George Kittle.

But I don’t trust the offense enough to chase the matchup. Likely’s 8-catch, 78-yard, 2-touchdown opener with Jaxson Dart feels like a long time ago. He followed that with 5 catches for 33 yards in Week 2 and just 2 catches for 13 yards on 5 targets last week with Winston.

You may not have a better option at tight end, but after two straight disappointing weeks and with Winston struggling to generate touchdowns, I’d rather look elsewhere if I can.

Not To Start: AJ Barner vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Barner is going to tempt people after catching 5 of 9 targets for 69 yards last week, especially after also sneaking in a gimmicky rushing touchdown on Seattle’s version of the tush push in Week 2. But that Washington matchup has been extremely friendly to tight ends, and I don’t want to chase one spike week as if his role has suddenly changed.

The Chargers did give up 9 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown to Trey McBride in Week 1, but McBride does that to just about everyone and was essentially Arizona’s entire passing game. Since then, they held Michael Mayer to 3 catches for 23 yards and limited Dalton Kincaid to 2 catches for 38 yards.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba can’t do everything by himself every week, so Barner will continue to have opportunities. But until the Week 3 target spike proves repeatable, he still looks much more like a touchdown-or-bust option than someone I want to trust in my lineup. That may still be the best choice you have at tight end, but I’d temper expectations.

Recap:

To Start

QB: Kyler Murray, Jacoby Brissett
RB: Braelon Allen, Jacory Croskey-Merritt
WR: Josh Downs, Stefon Diggs
TE: Darren Waller, Tucker Kraft

Not to Start

QB: Drake Maye, Justin Herbert
RB: Omarion Hampton, Ollie Gordon II/Jaylen Wright
WR: Wan'Dale Robinson/Carnell Tate, Malik Washington/Chris Bell
TE: Isaiah Likely, AJ Barner