The Great Debate: To Start or Not To Start? Week 10

“We do not have a very short time assigned to us, but we lose a great deal of it.” — Seneca

A few weeks ago, the fantasy football season felt like an uphill climb. Now, it feels like we've reached the top of the ladder and started speeding down the slide toward the finish line. We're not quite there yet, but suddenly the playoffs are approaching, the weeks are disappearing, and there's considerably less time to recover from our mistakes.

As the season accelerates, I've found myself facing a different challenge. Life outside of fantasy football has become increasingly busy, and finding the time and energy to devote to research, rankings, and lineup decisions isn't getting any easier. Frankly, it's beginning to show in my own fantasy results, rankings, and even the time I've had to put together this article. As much as I'd love to dedicate endless hours to this hobby, there are other responsibilities that deserve my attention.

Perhaps that's the challenge Seneca's words remind us of. We can't create more time, but we can be more deliberate about how we spend it. With the fantasy playoffs approaching, maintaining a thoughtful process remains important, but so does recognizing our limitations and deciding where our attention is best spent. After all, fantasy football is supposed to be something we enjoy, not another obligation that consumes us.

As always, you'll find this week's recommendations, last week's receipts, and the lessons learned at the end of the article. Consult your preferred rankings, and feel free to reach out with any specific questions or thoughts @FFrealitycheck on X.

Quarterbacks

To Start: Tyler Shough vs. Carolina Panthers

Tyler Shough continues to provide useful fantasy production despite New Orleans' inconsistent offense. He completed 21 of 35 passes for 265 yards and a TD against Cleveland last week, adding a season-high 51 rushing yards. He's now surpassed 250 passing yards in six of eight games, and Carolina presents another opportunity to deliver a productive performance.

Here's what opposing quarterbacks have recently done against the Panthers:

• Week 6: Tanner McKee: 215 yards, 1 TD
• Week 7: Baker Mayfield: 64 yards, 1 TD
• Week 8: Jordan Love: 288 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
• Week 9: Bo Nix: 237 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT (2 rushing yards)

Carolina has surrendered seven passing TDs over its last four games, including five to Love and Nix over the last two weeks. New Orleans is a 1.5-point home favorite in a game with a 47.5-point over/under, giving the Saints an implied total of approximately 24.5 points.

Shough has attempted an average of 38.5 passes per game this season. His rushing production provides another avenue for fantasy points, contributing 162 yards and two TDs on the ground this season. Meanwhile, Chris Olave continues commanding substantial receiving volume, drawing 12 targets last week, and rookie Jordyn Tyson has finally joined the offense.

The Panthers haven't been consistently generous to opposing quarterbacks, and Shough has thrown multiple TDs just once over his last five games. However, his substantial passing volume, occasional rushing contributions, and an opponent that has recently struggled to prevent passing touchdowns make him an appealing streaming option this week.

Not To Start: Michael Penix Jr. vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Michael Penix Jr. burned me last week against Cincinnati, managing just 162 passing yards, one TD and an interception despite a favorable matchup. However, I don't necessarily regret the recommendation. The game produced 51 combined points, and the Bengals had been vulnerable against opposing quarterbacks. Unfortunately, most of that scoring came from Cincinnati, and Penix failed to capitalize. This week's matchup is considerably less inviting.

Here's what opposing quarterbacks have done recently against the Chiefs:

• Week 6: Justin Herbert: 204 yards, 1 INT (26 rushing yards)
• Week 7: Sam Darnold: 257 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (17 rushing yards)
• Week 8: Bo Nix: 222 yards, 2 TD (4 rushing yards)
• Week 9: Geno Smith: 165 yards (8 rushing yards)

Kansas City has surrendered just seven passing TDs through eight games, recording six interceptions. Over their last four contests, the Chiefs have held opposing quarterbacks to an average of 212 passing yards and three combined passing TDs. Atlanta is a 3.5-point home underdog in a game with a 45.5-point over/under, giving the Falcons an implied total of just 21 points.

Penix had thrown three TDs in consecutive games against Chicago and San Francisco before his recent struggles. Unfortunately, he's now managed just 287 passing yards, one TD and five interceptions over his last two appearances. His 50 rushing yards against Cincinnati were encouraging, but rushing production hasn't been a consistent element of his game.

Perhaps Penix rebounds after two disappointing performances, particularly with Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson providing capable receiving options. However, Kansas City has consistently frustrated opposing passing attacks, and Atlanta's recent offensive struggles make this a particularly difficult matchup to trust. I'll be exploring alternatives this week.

Not Much to Debate

Jared Goff vs. New England is a start I'm comfortable with despite Detroit's recent passing struggles. Goff has thrown for just 346 yards and one TD over his last two games, including a disappointing 170-yard performance against Miami. However, New England was just dismantled by Jordan Love, who threw for 372 yards and three TDs while adding another score on the ground. Detroit is a three-point favorite in a neutral site game with a 51.5-point over/under, and I'm trusting the Lions' offense to rebound in a potentially high-scoring contest.

On the other hand, I'd avoid the week's collection of new starting quarterbacks unless I'm particularly desperate. Jacoby Brissett is taking over Baltimore's offense against the Chargers after being benched in Arizona, while rookie Fernando Mendoza makes his first start against Seattle's formidable defense. Carson Beck also makes his first career start against a difficult Rams’ defense, and Kyle McCord inherits a struggling Miami offense following Malik Willis' injury. Any of them could surprise us, but I'd rather see how these new arrangements work before trusting them in my fantasy lineup.

Running Backs

To Start: Audric Estimé vs. Carolina Panthers

Audric Estimé made quite an impression in his first game with New Orleans, rushing for 72 yards and a TD on 15 carries against Cleveland. More importantly, he received 16 opportunities compared to Alvin Kamara’s 10, suggesting he could have a significant role in the Saints' backfield moving forward. This week's matchup against Carolina offers an excellent opportunity to build on that performance.

Here's what opposing running backs have done recently against the Panthers:

• Week 6: Dameon Pierce: 12 carries, 35 yards, 1 TD (4 rec., 15 yards)
• Week 7: Bucky Irving: 24 carries, 106 yards, 2 TD (1 rec., 4 yards); Kenneth Gainwell: 14 carries, 88 yards; Sean Tucker: 7 carries, 52 yards, 1 TD
• Week 8: Josh Jacobs: 21 carries, 39 yards, 1 TD (6 rec., 13 yards, 1 TD)
• Week 9: Jonah Coleman: 17 carries, 57 yards, 1 TD (4 rec., 31 yards)

Carolina has surrendered seven total TDs to running backs over its last four games, including six on the ground. The Panthers are allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position this season. New Orleans is a 2.5-point home favorite in a game with a 48.5-point over/under, giving the Saints an implied total of 25.5 points.

Estimé played approximately 49% of New Orleans' offensive snaps last week, matching Kamara, but handled 15 of the team's 22 running back carries. However, Kamara maintained the more valuable receiving role, running twice as many routes and drawing four targets compared to just one for Estimé.

That receiving disparity makes Estimé considerably more appealing in standard and half-PPR formats. There's also uncertainty surrounding the backfield, particularly with Travis Etienne potentially returning from injured reserve. However, if Estimé retains the early-down workload he received last week, this matchup offers considerable upside. I'm willing to trust him as a FLEX option, particularly in leagues where receptions aren't as valuable.

Not To Start: Ashton Jeanty vs. Seattle Seahawks

Ashton Jeanty has become increasingly difficult to trust, particularly as a runner. Over his last four games, he's managed just 71 rushing yards on 26 carries. Fortunately, his receiving involvement has helped compensate for that lack of production, but Seattle presents another challenging matchup.

Here's what opposing running backs have done recently against the Seahawks:

• Week 6: J.K. Dobbins: 17 carries, 41 yards, 1 TD (3 rec., 5 yards); RJ Harvey: 6 carries, 25 yards, 1 TD (3 rec., 31 yards)
• Week 7: Kenneth Walker III: 14 carries, 36 yards (4 rec., 21 yards)
• Week 8: D'Andre Swift: 27 carries, 69 yards, 3 TD (2 rec., 10 yards)
• Week 9: Tyler Allgeier: 17 carries, 46 yards (2 rec., 0 yards)

Seattle has held opposing running backs to an average of just 60 rushing yards over its last four games. Although Swift managed three rushing TDs against them, the Seahawks have otherwise been particularly effective at limiting production on the ground. Las Vegas is a 6.5-point home underdog in a game with a 40.5-point over/under, giving the Raiders an implied total of just 17 points.

Jeanty has caught 20 passes for 156 yards over his last four games, providing some value despite his rushing struggles. However, he's now facing a defense that has consistently limited opposing rushing attacks, and the Raiders are preparing to start rookie Fernando Mendoza at quarterback against one of the league's toughest defenses.

The receiving opportunities could certainly keep Jeanty relevant, particularly in full-PPR leagues. However, with Las Vegas facing one of the week's lowest implied team totals and Seattle consistently shutting down opposing rushing attacks, I'm expecting another frustrating afternoon. I'd prefer to explore alternatives rather than rely on his receiving production to salvage another difficult matchup.

Not Much to Debate

Derrick Henry vs. the Chargers is a start I'm once again comfortable with. Henry has struggled considerably, managing just 213 rushing yards and one TD over his last four games. However, he continues commanding the majority of Baltimore's carries and now faces a winless Chargers’ defense that has surrendered eight rushing TDs to running backs this season. With Baltimore favored at home, I'm trusting Henry to finally get back on track.

On the other hand, I'd prefer to avoid Green Bay's backfield against Minnesota. With Josh Jacobs sidelined by a fractured finger, Kaleb Johnson has become a popular waiver-wire addition after rushing for 68 yards and a TD against New England. However, much of his production came late in a blowout, and other backs could factor into the backfield. Minnesota has generally limited opposing running backs, and Green Bay's rushing production has relied heavily on Jacobs' scoring opportunities. Until someone establishes a dependable workload, I'd rather avoid guessing which replacement will benefit.

Wide Receivers

To Start: Jordyn Tyson vs. Carolina Panthers

I'm taking a gamble on rookie Jordyn Tyson this week. After missing the first eight games with a hamstring injury, Tyson finally made his NFL debut against Cleveland, catching four of five targets for 30 yards. Those numbers aren't particularly impressive, but he played just 25% of New Orleans' offensive snaps and was targeted on nearly one-third of his routes. With his workload expected to increase, Carolina presents an appealing opportunity.

Here's what opposing wide receivers have done recently against the Panthers:

• Week 6: DeVonta Smith: 7 rec., 75 yards, 1 TD; Dontayvion Wicks: 2 rec., 24 yards; Makà­i Lemon: 3 rec., 19 yards
• Week 7: Tez Johnson: 2 rec., 33 yards, 1 TD; Chris Godwin: 4 rec., 27 yards
• Week 8: Christian Watson: 8 rec., 113 yards; Matthew Golden: 7 rec., 79 yards, 1 TD
• Week 9: Pat Bryant: 4 rec., 56 yards, 1 TD; Courtland Sutton: 5 rec., 45 yards, 1 TD; Troy Franklin: 3 rec., 31 yards

Carolina has surrendered five receiving TDs to wide receivers over its last four games, including three over the last two contests. New Orleans is a 2.5-point home favorite in a game with a 48.5-point over/under, giving the Saints an implied total of 25.5 points.

Despite his limited playing time, Tyson drew more targets than Devaughn Vele, who ran 44 routes compared to Tyson's 16. Meanwhile, Tyler Shough has attempted at least 35 passes in seven consecutive games, providing plenty of opportunities for the receiving corps. Head coach Kellen Moore has also indicated that Tyson's workload should expand considerably.

Admittedly, trusting a rookie with just four career receptions is risky, particularly with Chris Olave commanding most of the receiving opportunities. However, I believe in Tyson's talent, and his immediate involvement suggests the Saints are eager to utilize him. I'm already trusting Shough this week, and I'm willing to gamble on Tyson as a deeper-league FLEX.

Not To Start: Ladd McConkey at Baltimore Ravens

Ladd McConkey has become one of the most frustrating receivers in fantasy football. After managing just one reception for 17 yards against Kansas City in Week 6, he rebounded with four catches for 86 yards against the Rams. Unfortunately, back spasms prevented him from playing against Houston last week, leaving fantasy managers with another zero. At this point, trusting his availability and production has become impossible.

Here's what opposing wide receivers have done recently against the Ravens:

• Week 6: Jerry Jeudy: 4 rec., 69 yards; KC Concepcion: 4 rec., 37 yards; Denzel Boston: 1 rec., 15 yards
• Week 7: Tee Higgins: 6 rec., 148 yards, 1 TD; Ja'Marr Chase: 5 rec., 62 yards, 1 TD
• Week 8: DJ Moore: 4 rec., 82 yards, 1 TD; Khalil Shakir: 5 rec., 64 yards
• Week 9: Jakobi Meyers: 4 rec., 65 yards; Parker Washington: 2 rec., 61 yards, 1 TD

Baltimore has surrendered four receiving TDs to wide receivers over its last three games, making this a potentially favorable matchup. However, the Chargers are 4.5-point road underdogs in a game with a 38.5-point over/under, giving them an implied total of just 17 points.

McConkey has appeared in just five games this season, catching 17 passes for 286 yards and one TD. His last touchdown came in Week 1, and injuries have repeatedly interrupted his opportunities. Meanwhile, Los Angeles remains winless, and its passing attack has struggled to establish any consistency.

The matchup itself isn't particularly concerning, and McConkey certainly has the talent to deliver a productive performance. However, even if he suits up, I'm increasingly uncomfortable trusting him to remain healthy and receive enough opportunities to justify a starting spot. Fantasy managers simply can't afford another zero this late in the season. I'd rather explore alternatives until McConkey and the Chargers demonstrate some consistency.

Not Much to Debate

Zay Flowers vs. the Chargers is a start I'm willing to trust despite his recent struggles. After recording six catches for 66 yards against Cleveland in Week 6, Flowers has become nearly unstartable, including a complete shutout against Buffalo and just three receptions for six yards against Jacksonville last week. However, Jacoby Brissett takes over at quarterback, and the winless Chargers have been extremely generous to opposing receivers. Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Kayshon Boutte all delivered productive performances against Los Angeles last week. Perhaps the quarterback change provides the spark Baltimore desperately needs, and I'm willing to give Flowers another chance in this favorable matchup.

On the other hand, Tre Tucker vs. Seattle is a sit I'd strongly consider. After catching 10 passes for 200 yards and three TDs across Weeks 6–7, Tucker has managed just four receptions for 55 yards over his last two games, including a complete shutout against the Jets. Now, rookie Fernando Mendoza is making his first NFL start against one of the league's toughest defenses. Las Vegas is a 6.5-point home underdog with an implied total of just 17 points. Tucker has demonstrated considerable upside this season, but with an inexperienced quarterback and a difficult matchup, I'd prefer to explore alternatives.

Tight Ends

To Start: Hunter Henry at Detroit Lions

Tight end has been my least accurate position this season, but given the weekly volatility, I'm choosing to blame the position rather than my questionable judgment. That said, I'm returning to Hunter Henry, whose recent production has been disappointing. A foot injury limited him to eight snaps against Miami in Week 8, and he managed just three receptions for 35 yards against Green Bay last week. Fortunately, Detroit presents one of the most favorable matchups imaginable.

Here's what opposing tight ends have done recently against the Lions:

• Week 5: Trey McBride: 9 rec., 66 yards, 1 TD; Teagan Quitoriano: 2 rec., 15 yards, 2 TD; Elijah Higgins: 3 rec., 57 yards
• Week 6: Bye
• Week 7: Tucker Kraft: 4 rec., 48 yards, 1 TD; Jonnu Smith: 1 rec., 9 yards
• Week 8: T.J. Hockenson: 4 rec., 58 yards, 1 TD; Ben Yurosek: 1 rec., 24 yards
• Week 9: Greg Dulcich: 2 rec., 14 yards; Will Kacmarek: 1 rec., 6 yards

Detroit has surrendered an NFL-high 11 receiving TDs to tight ends through eight games, allowing 704 yards to the position. New England is a three-point underdog in Munich, with a 51.5-point over/under, giving the Patriots an implied total of approximately 24 points.

Before suffering his foot injury, Henry had recorded at least 44 receiving yards in four consecutive games, becoming a dependable option for Drake Maye. However, rookie Eli Raridon has emerged as a legitimate contributor, catching three of six targets for 52 yards against Green Bay while playing more snaps than Henry.

Interestingly, Detroit has been so vulnerable to tight ends that Raridon could also be worth considering in deeper leagues, particularly those with a TE premium. His growing involvement is encouraging, although his opportunities remain considerably less dependable than Henry's established role.

The biggest concern is whether Henry's foot injury continues limiting his playing time. Still, with another week to recover and a matchup against a defense that has repeatedly surrendered productive performances to tight ends, I'm willing to trust him again.

Not To Start: Kyle Pitts vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Kyle Pitts appeared to be finding his footing after scoring four TDs across Weeks 5–7. Unfortunately, he's practically disappeared over his last two games, catching just five passes for 29 yards without a score. The targets haven't completely vanished, but his production has, and Kansas City presents another difficult challenge.

Here's what opposing tight ends have done recently against the Chiefs:

• Week 6: Charlie Kolar: 3 rec., 20 yards; Oronde Gadsden II: 3 rec., 17 yards
• Week 7: AJ Barner: 4 rec., 42 yards; Eric Saubert: 1 rec., 17 yards
• Week 8: Adam Trautman: 2 rec., 30 yards; Nate Adkins: 2 rec., 4 yards, 1 TD; Evan Engram: 0 rec.
• Week 9: Kenyon Sadiq: 4 rec., 49 yards; Mason Taylor: 1 rec., 11 yards

Kansas City has allowed just one receiving TD to tight ends over its last four games, holding the position to approximately 48 yards per contest during that stretch. Atlanta is a 3.5-point home underdog in a game with a 45.5-point over/under, giving the Falcons an implied total of just 21 points.

Pitts has at least five targets in five consecutive games, so the opportunities haven't disappeared entirely. However, he's accumulated just 111 receiving yards over his last four appearances, with three touchdowns accounting for much of his fantasy production. His average depth of target has also fallen considerably, limiting his opportunities for explosive plays.

Of course, tight end is an unpredictable position, and Pitts could certainly find the end zone again. If my alternatives are limited, I'm not necessarily opposed to starting him. However, Atlanta's offense has struggled lately, and Pitts hasn't demonstrated enough consistent receiving production to inspire much confidence. Against a defense that's been particularly effective at limiting tight ends recently, I'd rather explore alternatives.

Not Much to Debate

Tyler Warren vs. Miami is a start I'm willing to trust despite Indianapolis' dreadful offensive performances. The Colts have scored just 40 points over their last three games, and Warren has managed only eight receptions for 62 yards over his last two appearances. However, he's drawn 26 targets over his last three games, and the departures of Josh Downs and Keenan Allen leave him as one of the offense's primary receiving options. Miami has surrendered six receiving TDs to tight ends this season, allowing the fourth-most PPR points to the position. I'm trusting the opportunities and matchup to finally translate into meaningful production.

On the other hand, Brevyn Spann-Ford vs. San Francisco is a sit I'd consider. With Jake Ferguson sidelined by a knee injury, the second-year tight end could inherit a larger role in Dallas' passing attack. However, Luke Schoonmaker is also available, and we haven't established how the receiving opportunities will be distributed. San Francisco hasn't been a particularly prohibitive matchup overall, but with Spann-Ford's role still uncertain, I'd rather see how Dallas utilizes him before trusting him in my fantasy lineup.

Recap

To Start

• QB: Tyler Shough
• RB: Audric Estimé
• WR: Jordyn Tyson
• TE: Hunter Henry

Not Much to Debate: Jared Goff (QB), Derrick Henry (RB), Zay Flowers (WR), Tyler Warren (TE)

Not To Start

• QB: Michael Penix Jr.
• RB: Ashton Jeanty
• WR: Ladd McConkey
• TE: Kyle Pitts

Not Much to Debate: Jacoby Brissett, Fernando Mendoza, Carson Beck, Kyle McCord (QB), Green Bay Packers backfield (RB), Tre Tucker (WR), Brevyn Spann-Ford (TE)

Last Week's Receipts (Week 9)

Scoring: Full PPR for RBs, WRs and TEs. QBs: 4-point passing TDs, -1 per INT.

Quarterbacks

• To Start: 🟡 Michael Penix Jr.: 14.5
• Not To Start: ✅ Gardner Minshew: 7.0

Not Much to Debate: ✅ Bo Nix (Start): 16.7 | ✅ Baker Mayfield (Sit): 7.7

Running Backs

• To Start: ❌ Ollie Gordon II: 7.4
• Not To Start: ✅ Aaron Jones: 3.1 | ✅ Jordan Mason: 6.2

Not Much to Debate: ✅ Jonah Coleman (Start): 18.8 | ✅ Chargers Backfield (Sit): Omarion Hampton (6.0), Keaton Mitchell (7.7), Kimani Vidal (4.6)

Wide Receivers

• To Start: ❌ Adonai Mitchell: 0.0 | ✅ Omar Cooper Jr.: 13.8
• Not To Start: ❌ Patriots WRs: Efton Chism III (15.9), DeMario Douglas (15.2), Mack Hollins (12.6)

Not Much to Debate: ❌ Rashee Rice (Start): 9.9 | ✅ Buccaneers WRs (Sit): Tez Johnson (9.6), Emeka Egbuka (6.9), Chris Godwin (4.8)

Tight Ends

• To Start: ❌ Sam LaPorta: 7.2
• Not To Start: ❌ Dallas Goedert: 10.0

Not Much to Debate: ✅ Harold Fannin Jr. (Start): 12.2 | ❌ Juwan Johnson (Sit): 11.4

Review

I feel pretty good about our quarterback calls last week. Michael Penix Jr. failed to capitalize on an excellent matchup, but I don't necessarily regret the process. The game produced plenty of points, just not for him. Meanwhile, Gardner Minshew, Bo Nix, and Baker Mayfield all performed relatively close to expectations.

Ollie Gordon II was our lone disappointing running back recommendation, but it wasn't for a lack of opportunities. He continues receiving substantial rushing volume, although his limited receiving involvement makes him increasingly dependent on finding the end zone. Otherwise, our running back calls worked out quite well.

Wide receiver and tight end were another story, although those positions naturally come with greater week-to-week variance. Despite Garrett Wilson's absence, Adonai Mitchell delivered a complete dud on seven targets. Perhaps I underestimated just how difficult Kansas City's defense can be at home. Meanwhile, my concern with New England's receivers was identifying who would benefit from the matchup. As it hilariously turns out, everyone. The Patriots were forced to throw while chasing Green Bay's red-hot offense, and multiple receivers delivered productive performances.

At tight end, Sam LaPorta disappointed alongside Detroit's entire passing attack against Miami. Meanwhile, Joe Milton III provided enough of a spark to slightly improve Dallas Goedert's production. Part of my concern was the uncertainty surrounding their new quarterback, so at least we've learned something there.

The challenge remains finding the right balance between opportunity, matchup, and talent. A favorable matchup doesn't guarantee production, and substantial opportunities don't always translate into fantasy points. At the same time, we can't beat ourselves up over every disappointing performance, particularly at positions where natural variance plays such a significant role. The goal isn't to eliminate uncertainty, but to keep improving how we account for it.