The Great Debate: To Start or Not To Start? Week 9

“Man suffers only because he takes seriously what the gods made for fun.” — Alan Watts

We’re officially into the second half of the fantasy football season. Whether we’re protecting our place atop the standings, fighting for a playoff spot, or already feeling defeated, it’s tempting to believe we know how things will play out. Yet we can barely predict what will happen next Sunday, let alone the rest of the season. The challenge is to learn from our mistakes, sharpen our process, and remain open to having our assumptions turned upside down.

Ultimately, this is a game we all clearly love, perhaps a little too obsessively at times. The frustration, disappointment, and occasional heartbreak are part of what makes the victories so rewarding. Without sorrow, there is no joy. And when pessimism starts creeping in,  gratitude is our best defense. Despite the injuries, disappointing results, and questionable decisions, there’s still plenty to appreciate about a game that gives us so much enjoyment.

As always, you’ll find this week’s recommendations, last week’s receipts, and the lessons learned at the end of the article. AngleRanks has also introduced a new Start/Sit tool worth checking out as you navigate your lineup decisions. Consult your preferred rankings, and feel free to reach out with any specific questions or thoughts @FFrealitycheck on X.

Quarterbacks

To Start: Michael Penix Jr. vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Michael Penix Jr. is coming off an absolutely disastrous performance against Tampa Bay, completing just eight of 24 passes for 125 yards and four interceptions. Fortunately, that game was played in miserable weather conditions, and Penix had thrown three TD passes in each of his previous two starts. This week’s matchup offers an excellent opportunity to rebound.

Here’s what opposing quarterbacks have done against the Bengals:

• Week 1: Baker Mayfield, 216 yards (30 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD)
• Week 2: C.J. Stroud, 353 yards (29 rushing yards)
• Week 3: Aaron Rodgers, 292 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
• Week 4: Trevor Lawrence, 227 yards, 1 TD
• Week 5: Malik Willis, 137 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT (74 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD)
• Week 6: Bye
• Week 7: Tyler Huntley, 298 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
• Week 8: Cam Ward, 304 yards, 2 TD (41 rushing yards)

Cincinnati has allowed 261 passing yards per game this season, including more than 300 to Stroud and Ward. Atlanta is a 3.5-point underdog in Madrid, with a 52.5-point over/under, giving the Falcons an implied total of approximately 24.5 points.

Before last week’s disaster, Penix had thrown eight TDs without an interception across four consecutive games. He’s averaging 7.6 yards per attempt this season, although his limited rushing production leaves him heavily dependent on passing efficiency and touchdowns.

The health and availability of Drake London could significantly influence this recommendation. Atlanta’s receiving depth is already being tested, and losing its primary receiving weapon would make an otherwise promising matchup considerably less attractive.

Not To Start: Gardner Minshew at Seattle Seahawks

Gardner Minshew provided an unexpected spark for Arizona last week, replacing Jacoby Brissett and completing 17 of 23 passes for 188 yards and three TDs in an overtime victory against Dallas. That performance earned him the starting job, but replicating that success against Seattle presents a considerably more difficult challenge.

Here’s what opposing quarterbacks have done against the Seahawks:

• Week 1: Drake Maye, 178 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT (47 rushing yards)
• Week 2: Jacoby Brissett, 95 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
• Week 3: Marcus Mariota, 183 yards, 3 TD
• Week 4: Justin Herbert, 189 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT (40 rushing yards)
• Week 5: Brock Purdy, 189 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
• Week 6: Bo Nix, 107 yards
• Week 7: Patrick Mahomes, 165 yards, 1 INT
• Week 8: Caleb Williams, 247 yards, 1 TD

Seattle has surrendered just one passing TD over its last three games, holding opposing quarterbacks to an average of 173 passing yards. Arizona is an 8.5-point road underdog with an implied total of approximately 15.5 points.

The Cardinals have already experienced how difficult this matchup can be. In Week 2, Brissett managed just 95 passing yards as Arizona suffered a 31-7 defeat.

Minshew certainly deserves credit for revitalizing the offense against Dallas, but his three touchdowns came against a considerably more vulnerable defense. He also hasn’t demonstrated a dependable rushing element that could compensate for limited passing production.

Perhaps the quarterback change provides the spark Arizona desperately needed. However, with Seattle consistently limiting opposing passing attacks and the Cardinals facing one of the week’s lowest implied team totals, I’d rather see Minshew succeed against a difficult defense before trusting him in my fantasy lineup.

Not Much to Debate

Bo Nix at Carolina is a start I’m increasingly comfortable with. After a sluggish start to the season, Nix has thrown three TDs and added a rushing score over his last two games. Carolina’s defense, meanwhile, has surrendered 70 points over its last two contests, including three passing TDs to Jordan Love last week. The Panthers failed to register a single QB hit or sack against Green Bay, and their defensive struggles prompted a coordinator change.

On the other hand, Baker Mayfield at Chicago is a sit I’d strongly consider. The Bears have surrendered seven passing TDs over their last three games, but their defense looked dramatically improved with Jeffery Simmons now anchoring the defensive front. Meanwhile, Mayfield has completed just seven of 14 passes for 64 yards and one TD over his last two appearances. Injuries have disrupted his season, and Tampa Bay’s passing attack remains unreliable. I’d rather see Mayfield reestablish any semblance of production before trusting him.

Running Backs

To Start: Ollie Gordon II vs. Detroit Lions

Ollie Gordon II has emerged as Miami’s featured running back following De’Von Achane’s injury, scoring four rushing TDs over his last five games. He’s handled at least 18 carries in three consecutive contests, including 25 for 103 yards against the Jets in Week 7. Unfortunately, Detroit presents a considerably more difficult matchup.

Here’s what opposing running backs have done against the Lions:

• Week 1: (NO) 18 carries, 76 yards, 1 TD (7 rec., 32 yards)
• Week 2: (BUF) 21 carries, 135 yards, 1 TD (1 rec., 4 yards)
• Week 3: (NYJ) 17 carries, 46 yards (6 rec., 26 yards)
• Week 4: (CAR) 20 carries, 122 yards, 2 TD (1 rec., 7 yards)
• Week 5: (ARI) 15 carries, 29 yards (2 rec., 9 yards)
• Week 6: Bye
• Week 7: (GB) 17 carries, 56 yards (7 rec., 70 yards, 1 TD)
• Week 8: (MIN) 13 carries, 42 yards (2 rec., 18 yards)

Detroit has allowed just 102 combined rushing yards to opposing running backs over its last two games, and hasn’t surrendered a rushing TD since Week 4. However, the Lions have lost All-Pro linebacker Jack Campbell to a serious neck injury, a substantial blow to their defense.

Miami is a seven-point home underdog in a game with a 50.5-point over/under, giving the Dolphins an implied total of approximately 22 points.

The matchup remains challenging, particularly because Gordon offers little receiving production, contributing just six catches for 14 yards this season. However, he’s played over 80% of Miami’s offensive snaps in consecutive games, while Jaylen Wright has barely threatened his workload.

There’s certainly some risk if Miami falls behind early, but Gordon has demonstrated an ability to produce despite the Dolphins’ offensive struggles. With four touchdowns in five games and a dependable workload, I’m willing to trust him as an RB2 despite the difficult matchup.

Not To Start: Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason vs. Buffalo Bills

Minnesota’s backfield has become increasingly difficult to trust following Jordan Mason’s return from injured reserve. Aaron Jones managed just five carries for 22 yards against Detroit last week, while Mason handled eight carries for 20 yards. Worse yet, DeeJay Dallas has emerged as a legitimate third contributor, further complicating an already unpredictable situation.

Here’s what opposing running backs have done against the Bills:

• Week 1: (HOU) 29 carries, 102 yards, 2 TD (4 rec., 17 yards, 1 TD)
• Week 2: (DET) 16 carries, 52 yards (6 rec., 61 yards, 1 TD)
• Week 3: (LAC) 23 carries, 108 yards (3 rec., -5 yards, 1 TD)
• Week 4: (NE) 27 carries, 89 yards, 1 TD (3 rec., 27 yards)
• Week 5: (LAR) 21 carries, 68 yards, 2 TD (9 rec., 80 yards)
• Week 6: (LV) 19 carries, 65 yards, 1 TD (5 rec., 43 yards)
• Week 7: Bye
• Week 8: (BAL) 14 carries, 68 yards, 1 TD (6 rec., 27 yards)

Buffalo has surrendered 10 total TDs to running backs through seven games, although its run defense has improved recently, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry over its last four contests. Minnesota is a 3.5-point home underdog in a game with a 45.5-point over/under, giving the Vikings an implied total of 21 points.

The matchup isn’t necessarily prohibitive, but Minnesota’s committee is becoming a concern. Last week, Jones played just 40% of offensive snaps, Mason played 28%, and Dallas accounted for another 32%. Neither Jones nor Mason has a dependable receiving role or enough rushing volume to overcome an inefficient performance.

Buffalo has certainly allowed productive fantasy outings to running backs, but Minnesota’s declining individual workloads make capitalizing on that vulnerability difficult. Until one of these backs establishes a more dependable role, I’d prefer to explore alternatives.

Not Much to Debate

Jonah Coleman at Carolina is a start I’m more than comfortable with. The rookie led Denver’s backfield against Kansas City last week, turning 11 carries into 41 yards and a TD while adding four receptions for 63 yards. With RJ Harvey on injured reserve, Coleman played 66% of offensive snaps, substantially outpacing J.K. Dobbins. Carolina has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including productive performances from four consecutive opponents.

On the other hand, I’d prefer to avoid the Chargers’ backfield against Houston. Omarion Hampton, Kimani Vidal, and Keaton Mitchell combined for just 49 rushing yards against the Rams last week, and Los Angeles has now gone 27 consecutive offensive possessions without a touchdown.

Wide Receivers

To Start: Adonai Mitchell and Omar Cooper Jr. at Kansas City Chiefs

I’m taking a gamble on a pair of young Jets receivers this week. Adonai Mitchell erupted for seven receptions, 142 yards and a TD against Las Vegas, while Omar Cooper Jr. somehow failed to draw a single target after consecutive 100-yard performances. With Garrett Wilson in concussion protocol, both could see expanded opportunities against a Kansas City secondary dealing with injuries.

Here’s what opposing wide receivers have done against the Chiefs:

Week 1: (DEN) 7 rec., 55 yards

Week 2: (IND) 12 rec., 149 yards

Week 3: (MIA) 12 rec., 141 yards

Week 4: (LV) 7 rec., 89 yards

Week 5: Bye

Week 6: (LAC) 9 rec., 127 yards

Week 7: (SEA) 13 rec., 171 yards, 1 TD

Week 8: (DEN) 11 rec., 115 yards, 1 TD

Kansas City has surrendered just two receiving TDs to wide receivers through seven games, allowing only 121 yards per contest to the position. However, the Chiefs are dealing with injuries in their secondary, including cornerback Mansoor Delane. The Jets are 10.5-point road underdogs in a game with a 47.5-point over/under, giving them an implied total of just 18.5 points.

Mitchell has drawn 12 targets over his two games since returning from injury, including nine last week. Meanwhile, Cooper has surpassed 100 receiving yards twice this season and played 78% of New York’s offensive snaps last week despite being completely ignored. The projected game script should provide opportunities for Geno Smith to throw frequently.

Of course, this recommendation comes with a significant caveat. At the time of writing, Wilson remains in concussion protocol. If he plays, I’m considerably less enthusiastic about trusting either receiver, particularly Cooper, whose unpredictable involvement makes him especially risky.

Not To Start: New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers

Drake Maye continues to play impressive football despite an increasingly depleted receiving corps. Unfortunately, identifying which Patriots receiver will benefit has become a weekly guessing game. A.J. Brown is dealing with ankle and knee injuries, Mack Hollins is working toward a return, and several younger receivers have been rotating through the offense.

Here’s what opposing wide receivers have done against the Packers:

• Week 1: (MIN) 8 rec., 92 yards, 2 TD
• Week 2: (NYJ) 17 rec., 154 yards, 1 TD
• Week 3: (ATL) 13 rec., 221 yards
• Week 4: (TB) 13 rec., 89 yards
• Week 5: (CHI) 11 rec., 104 yards
• Week 6: (DAL) 22 rec., 183 yards, 1 TD
• Week 7: (DET) 15 rec., 254 yards, 2 TD
• Week 8: (CAR) 12 rec., 119 yards, 1 TD

Green Bay has surrendered 556 receiving yards and four TDs to wide receivers over its last three games, making this an appealing matchup. New England is a 3.5-point home favorite in a game with a 46.5-point over/under, giving the Patriots an implied total of 25 points.

Last week, DeMario Douglas caught three passes for 76 yards and a TD, Kyle Williams contributed a 43-yard touchdown, and Efton Chism III led the receiving corps with five receptions. However, Maye attempted just 20 passes, and those three receivers combined for only nine targets.

Despite the favorable matchup and Maye’s impressive play, there are simply too many unknowns. It’s unclear which receivers will even be available, and regardless of who suits up, predicting how the targets will be distributed is another challenge entirely. Someone could certainly emerge with a productive performance, but I’d rather avoid the guessing game.

Not Much to Debate

Rashee Rice vs. the Jets is a start I’m not overthinking. Returning from a two-game absence, Rice immediately reclaimed a prominent role in Kansas City’s passing attack, catching seven of eight targets for 53 yards and a TD against Denver. He scored on the opening possession, and Patrick Mahomes wasted little time getting him involved. The Chiefs are double-digit home favorites against a Jets’ defense that has surrendered nine receiving TDs to wide receivers through eight games.

On the other hand, I’d avoid Tampa Bay’s receivers at Chicago. Emeka Egbuka is dealing with a foot injury, Chris Godwin hasn’t established dependable production, and Baker Mayfield has completed just seven passes for 64 yards over his last two appearances. Meanwhile, Chicago’s defense has looked excellent lately, making an already struggling passing attack even less appealing.

Tight Ends

To Start: Sam LaPorta at Miami Dolphins

Sam LaPorta has been disappointing over his last two games, catching just four passes for 51 yards against Green Bay and Minnesota. Fortunately, those are two of the league’s toughest defenses against tight ends, and his upcoming matchup against Miami is considerably more inviting.

Here’s what opposing tight ends have done against the Dolphins:

• Week 1: (LV) 6 rec., 32 yards
• Week 2: (SF) 4 rec., 80 yards, 1 TD
• Week 3: (KC) 5 rec., 98 yards, 1 TD
• Week 4: (MIN) 14 rec., 123 yards
• Week 5: (CIN) 8 rec., 48 yards, 2 TD
• Week 6: Bye
• Week 7: (NYJ) 7 rec., 67 yards, 2 TD
• Week 8: (NE) 4 rec., 35 yards

Miami has surrendered six receiving TDs and 483 yards to tight ends through seven games, allowing nearly 69 yards per contest to the position. Detroit is a 6.5-point road favorite in a game with a 50.5-point over/under, giving the Lions an implied total of approximately 28.5 points.

Before his recent struggles, LaPorta had caught at least five passes in four of his first five games, including consecutive performances of 84 and 88 yards against Carolina and Arizona. He’s accumulated 31 receptions for 367 yards and three TDs this season, and Miami has allowed five different tight ends to score touchdowns. I’m willing to overlook his recent performances against two elite defenses and trust him to get back on track.

Not To Start: Dallas Goedert vs. New York Giants

Dallas Goedert has remained relatively productive despite Philadelphia’s offensive struggles, catching 15 passes for 139 yards over his last three games. However, he’s now gone five consecutive appearances without a touchdown, and the Eagles are preparing to start their third quarterback of the season.

Here’s what opposing tight ends have done against the Giants:

• Week 1: (DAL) 5 rec., 32 yards
• Week 2: (LAR) 9 rec., 76 yards, 1 TD
• Week 3: (TEN) 4 rec., 30 yards
• Week 4: (ARI) 10 rec., 60 yards, 1 TD
• Week 5: (WAS) 5 rec., 61 yards
• Week 6: (NO) 2 rec., 10 yards
• Week 7: (HOU) 6 rec., 44 yards
• Week 8: Bye

New York has surrendered just two receiving TDs to tight ends through seven games, holding the position to 115 combined yards over its last three contests. Philadelphia is a 3.5-point home underdog in a game with a 38.5-point over/under, giving the Eagles an implied total of just 17.5 points.

Goedert actually saw considerable involvement with Tanner McKee, drawing 24 targets across Weeks 5-7 before managing just four receptions for 30 yards against Washington last week. Now, Joe Milton III is likely taking over at quarterback, bringing an intriguing combination of arm strength and mobility to an offense desperately needing a spark.

Perhaps Milton provides that spark and Goedert benefits. However, with an inexperienced quarterback making his first official NFL start, an offense struggling to score, and an unfavorable matchup, I’d rather see how this new arrangement works before trusting Goedert.

Not Much to Debate

Harold Fannin Jr. at New Orleans is a start. After a quiet stretch, Fannin erupted for 16 receptions and 245 yards over his last two games, drawing 21 targets during that span. He caught 10 passes for 154 yards against Pittsburgh last week, even as Cleveland’s offense struggled to move the ball. New Orleans has allowed 479 receiving yards to tight ends through seven games.

On the other hand, Juwan Johnson against Cleveland is a sit I’d consider. After a productive start to the season, Johnson has managed just one reception for seven yards over his last two appearances, including a complete shutout against the Giants in Week 6. The Saints are coming off their bye, but Johnson’s involvement in the passing attack has essentially disappeared.

Recap

To Start

• QB: Michael Penix Jr.
• RB: Ollie Gordon II
• WR: Adonai Mitchell and Omar Cooper Jr. (assuming Garrett Wilson is out)
• TE: Sam LaPorta
• Not Much to Debate: Bo Nix (QB), Jonah Coleman (RB), Rashee Rice (WR), Harold Fannin Jr. (TE)

Not To Start

• QB: Gardner Minshew
• RB: Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason
• WR: New England Patriots receivers
• TE: Dallas Goedert

Not Much to Debate: Baker Mayfield (QB), Los Angeles Chargers backfield (RB), Tampa Bay Buccaneers receivers (WR), Juwan Johnson (TE)

Last Week’s Receipts (Week 8)

Scoring: Full PPR for RBs, WRs and TEs. QBs: 4-point passing TDs, -1 per INT.

Quarterbacks

• To Start: ❌ Jacoby Brissett: 4.5
• Not To Start: ❌ Bo Nix: 19.3
• Not Much to Debate:
• ✅ Kirk Cousins (Start): 28.2 | ❌ Patrick Mahomes (Sit): 25.4

Running Backs

• To Start: 🟡 Rhamondre Stevenson: 12.0
• Not To Start: ✅ Quinshon Judkins: 6.9
• Not Much to Debate:
• ✅ Bhayshul Tuten (Start): 29.9 | ❌ Jonah Coleman (Sit): 20.4

Wide Receivers

• To Start: ❌ Ja’Kobi Lane: 2.3
• Not To Start: ❌ Jameson Williams: 17.0
• Not Much to Debate:
• ❌ Omar Cooper Jr. (Start): 0.0 | ❌ Tre Tucker (Start): 0.0 | 🟡 Ladd McConkey (Sit): 12.6

Tight Ends

• To Start: ❌ Hunter Henry: 6.0 (Deeper-league option Eli Raridon: 1.5)
• Not To Start: ✅ Greg Dulcich: 8.3
• Not Much to Debate:
• ✅ T.J. Hockenson (Start): 15.8 | ❌ Pat Freiermuth (Sit): 11.6

Review

After one of my best weeks of the season, I naturally followed it up with one of my worst. I’m still less concerned with the “Not Much to Debate” selections since variance is inevitable, and disappointing results don’t necessarily mean poor process.

Jacoby Brissett was my most glaring mistake. Nobody anticipated a mid-game benching, but he hadn’t been playing well enough to justify my confidence, regardless of how favorable the matchup appeared. Meanwhile, Bo Nix has worked his way back into my circle of trust after producing in multiple consecutive games, including last week’s seemingly difficult matchup..

Rhamondre Stevenson received the workload we wanted, but without a touchdown, his performance was usable rather than particularly helpful. Quinshon Judkins was probably my best call of the week. As for Jonah Coleman, I reversed my sit recommendation on X after RJ Harvey was ruled out and placed on injured reserve. Hopefully, you were able to adjust accordingly. Coleman has inherited Denver’s most valuable backfield opportunities and looks like a potential league winner. Or at least a week winner, until Harvey returns or Denver makes some ridiculous blockbuster trade for Jonathan Taylor.

Ja’Kobi Lane’s disastrous performance was difficult to anticipate, particularly with both Baltimore quarterbacks suffering injuries. Even Zay Flowers failed to record a reception in an otherwise favorable matchup. I’m not losing sleep over that one. Jameson Williams, however, was a mistake beyond simply producing against a difficult defense. I’ve consistently avoided recommending him because of his boom-or-bust tendencies, yet somehow convinced myself he was a strong sit. That’s exactly the kind of player who shouldn’t inspire much confidence in either direction.

The biggest lesson this week is that I need to stop relearning lessons I’ve already learned. If I don’t believe in a player’s talent or ability to produce consistently, a favorable matchup shouldn’t suddenly change that. Likewise, players with established hot-and-cold tendencies don’t always warrant a definitive start or sit recommendation. Sometimes recognizing the uncertainty is better than pretending we’ve solved it.