The Great Debate: To Start or Not To Start? Week 6

“The price of greatness is responsibility.” — Winston Churchill

We’re approaching the middle of the fantasy football season, and by now, most of us have a pretty good idea of where our teams stand. Some are comfortably sitting atop the standings, others are fighting to stay in the playoff picture, and a few are already wondering where it all went wrong.

But regardless of your record, complacency can be dangerous. A winning streak doesn’t mean your lineup decisions have become automatic, and a losing streak isn’t an excuse to stop trying. Injuries, bye weeks, changing roles, and unpredictable performances continue to reshape the fantasy landscape every Sunday.

Week 6 brings another round of difficult decisions, from trusting players who’ve recently disappointed us to deciding whether a breakout performance is worth chasing. The key is to keep questioning our assumptions, learning from our mistakes, and treating every week as a new challenge.

As always, you’ll find a recap of this week’s recommendations, along with last week’s receipts and lessons learned, at the end of the article. And if your particular dilemma isn’t covered, consult your preferred rankings or send me your start/sit questions @FFrealitycheck on X.

Quarterbacks

To Start: Tyler Shough at New York Giants

Last week, I recommended sitting Tyler Shough against Minnesota, and he made that decision look brilliant by throwing for just 96 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions against what is clearly the best defense in football. Now I’m recommending starting him. What could possibly go wrong?

Before that disaster, Shough was leading the NFL in passing attempts, had thrown for at least 250 yards in each of his first four games and averaged 21.3 fantasy points per game. New Orleans still has virtually no running game, and this week’s matchup is considerably more inviting.

Here’s what opposing quarterbacks have done against the Giants:

Week 1: Dak Prescott, 175 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Week 2: Matthew Stafford, 327 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT
Week 3: Cam Ward, 181 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Week 4: Jacoby Brissett, 166 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT
Week 5: Jayden Daniels, 199 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (103 rushing yards, 2 rushing TD)

The Saints are 1.5-point road favorites in a game with a 45.5-point over/under, giving them an implied total of 23.5 points. Weather shouldn’t be a significant factor, with temperatures in the mid-50s, light winds and little precipitation expected.

The Giants have been inconsistent defensively, and their recent opponents haven’t always needed substantial passing production to succeed. Daniels did most of his damage on the ground last week, while Brissett threw three interceptions despite finding the end zone twice.

That’s the concern with Shough. His offensive line remains problematic, and sheer passing volume doesn’t guarantee fantasy production, as Minnesota reminded us. His pass protection still leaves little margin for error.

Still, this is a much more manageable matchup, and New Orleans should have enough opportunities to sustain drives. I’m betting last week’s disaster was more about Minnesota’s defense than a complete collapse in Shough’s fantasy viability.

Not To Start: Jacoby Brissett at Los Angeles Rams

Jacoby Brissett was one of my recommended starts in each of the last two weeks, with mixed results. Last week, he threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns against Detroit, but Arizona still lost 45–21. Now the Cardinals face another opponent capable of building a large lead, this time with a considerably tougher pass defense.

Here’s what opposing quarterbacks have done against the Rams:

Week 1: Brock Purdy, 205 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT (29 rushing yards)
Week 2: Jaxson Dart, 20 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT; Jameis Winston, 111 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
Week 3: Bo Nix, 186 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT (1 rushing TD)
Week 4: Jalen Hurts, 93 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT (18 rushing yards)
Week 5: Josh Allen, 210 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (121 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD)

Arizona is a 12.5-point road underdog in a game with a 51.5-point over/under, giving the Cardinals an implied total of just 19.5 points. Weather won’t be a factor inside SoFi Stadium.

The enormous spread suggests Brissett could once again approach 40–50 pass attempts, but the Rams have been excellent at limiting efficient passing production. Even Josh Allen, the current MVP favorite, was limited to 210 passing yards and one touchdown Monday night, doing most of his damage with 121 rushing yards. Jalen Hurts, meanwhile, managed just 93 passing yards against Los Angeles, as Philadelphia squandered its lead and Matthew Stafford orchestrated the comeback.

Arizona’s offensive line remains a major concern, and Brissett has thrown five interceptions through five games. The Cardinals also lack a dependable rushing attack to prevent opposing defenses from attacking the quarterback.

Michael Wilson and Trey McBride could still accumulate useful receiving numbers through sheer volume, but that doesn’t necessarily make their quarterback a trustworthy fantasy option. We’ve repeatedly seen Arizona produce enough passing opportunities without generating the efficiency required for a strong fantasy performance.

The potential garbage-time volume is tempting, and Brissett could certainly make this recommendation look foolish. But given the matchup and Arizona’s offensive struggles, I think there are safer quarterback options available this week.

Not Much to Debate

Jordan Love vs. Dallas Cowboys is a start that shouldn’t require much debate. He’s thrown 10 touchdowns against three interceptions through five games, and is coming off a 367-yard performance against Chicago. Dallas has struggled against opposing quarterbacks, and Green Bay carries a 27.5-point implied total in what is projected to be one of the week’s highest-scoring games. With the Packers still struggling to establish a reliable rushing attack, Love has an excellent chance to continue producing through the air.

On the other hand, Justin Herbert at Kansas City belongs on the bench if you have a reasonable alternative. He’s failed to reach 14 fantasy points in five straight games, throwing just five touchdowns against seven interceptions. The Chargers’ offensive line has been decimated by injuries, and Kansas City’s defense is hardly the opponent I’d choose for a potential rebound. The talent is there, but the circumstances aren’t.

Running Backs

To Start: MarShawn Lloyd vs. Dallas Cowboys

MarShawn Lloyd finally gave fantasy managers something to get excited about last week, scoring twice against Chicago. Unfortunately, his 10 carries produced just 31 yards, and he played only 44% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps. This is hardly a trustworthy workload, but with injuries and bye weeks creating difficult lineup decisions, the matchup makes him an intriguing gamble.

Here’s what opposing running backs have done against Dallas:

Week 1:

• Cam Skattebo: 18 carries, 81 yards, 1 TD
• Devin Singletary: 4 rec., 22 yards, 1 TD

Week 2:

• Rachaad White: 7 carries, 43 yards (6 rec., 40 yards)
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 12 carries, 43 yards

Week 3:

• Derrick Henry: 26 carries, 89 yards, 2 TD

Week 4:

• Woody Marks: 6 carries, 22 yards, 1 TD
• David Montgomery: 10 carries, 24 yards

Week 5:

• Bucky Irving: 21 carries, 165 yards, 1 TD (2 rec., 10 yards, 1 TD)

Green Bay is a 1.5-point home favorite in a game with a 53.5-point over/under, giving the Packers an implied total of 27.5 points. Dallas has allowed some enormous rushing performances, most recently getting demolished by Irving, and the Packers should have plenty of scoring opportunities.

The concern is Green Bay’s unsettled backfield. Josh Jacobs remains unavailable, while Chris Brooks is on IR. Pierre Strong Jr. played 41% of snaps last week and handled more receiving work, while Kaleb Johnson fell to just 15%. Lloyd led the group in carries and scored twice, but he’s nowhere near having a full-time role.

There’s certainly a chance Lloyd disappoints, particularly if Green Bay continues struggling to run the football, or if the touchdowns go elsewhere. But with a depleted backfield, favorable game script and one of the league’s more inviting matchups, I’m willing to take a chance on his touchdown upside as a flex. This is much more of a dart throw than a comfortable start.

Not To Start: Jeremiyah Love at Los Angeles Rams

I keep waiting for Jeremiyah Love to look like the explosive running back Arizona invested the 3rd overall pick in, but five weeks into his rookie season, we’ve seen precious little of it. Outside of his encouraging Week 3 performance (109 total yards, 1 TD), Love has managed just 172 scrimmage yards and one touchdown across four games.

His workload is equally concerning. Despite handling 11 of Arizona’s first 12 running back opportunities against Detroit, he played just 24% of second-half snaps once the Cardinals fell behind, with Tyler Allgeier continuing to handle much of the passing-down work.

And this week’s opponent presents another difficult challenge.

Here’s what opposing running backs have done against the Rams:

Week 1:

• Christian McCaffrey: 10 carries, 68 yards (5 rec., 20 yards)
• Kaelon Black: 14 carries, 65 yards (1 rec., 5 yards)

Week 2:

• Cam Skattebo: 12 carries, 36 yards (4 rec., 19 yards)
• Devin Singletary: 3 carries, 9 yards

Week 3:

• J.K. Dobbins: 17 carries, 49 yards (1 rec., 4 yards)
• RJ Harvey: 2 carries, 6 yards (6 rec., 41 yards)

Week 4:

• Tank Bigsby: 14 carries, 55 yards
• Will Shipley: 6 carries, 23 yards

Week 5:

• James Cook: 25 carries, 111 yards, 2 TD (1 rec., 7 yards)
• Ty Johnson: 4 rec., 72 yards

Arizona is a massive 12.5-point underdog in a game with a 51.5-point over/under, giving the Cardinals an implied total of just 19.5 points.

That’s particularly problematic after what happened against Detroit. If Los Angeles builds the kind of lead the point spread suggests, Arizona could again favor Allgeier in passing situations, leaving Love with limited touches and minimal receiving opportunities.

The talent remains intriguing, and perhaps he finally breaks a long run that reminds us why he was so highly regarded. Admittedly, I’m starting Love everywhere I have him this week because I simply don’t have better options in those leagues. But that doesn’t mean I feel good about it. Until he demonstrates a more dependable role regardless of game script, our expectations should remain low. 

Not Much to Debate

Rhamondre Stevenson vs. New York Jets is a start I wouldn’t overthink. With TreVeyon Henderson sidelined, Stevenson could return to the workhorse role he held in Week 1, when he played 85% of offensive snaps and handled 23 touches. New England is favored at home, and that kind of workload is difficult to pass up, especially with injuries and bye weeks limiting our options.

On the other hand, Omarion Hampton at Kansas City is someone I’d leave on the bench if I have a reasonable alternative. His snap share has declined from 63% in Week 2 to just 30% last week, and he’s now competing with Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal for opportunities.

Wide Receivers

To Start: Germie Bernard at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Germie Bernard wasn’t even on most fantasy managers’ radars entering last week, but injuries have suddenly transformed the rookie into an intriguing starting option.

With Michael Pittman Jr. already on IR, and Roman Wilson exiting against Indianapolis, Bernard caught six of nine targets for 80 yards, leading Pittsburgh in targets. More encouragingly, Bernard played 93% of offensive snaps and ran a route on 35 of Aaron Rodgers’ 38 dropbacks.

Here’s what opposing wide receivers have done against Tampa Bay:

Week 1:

• Tee Higgins: 3 rec., 59 yards
• Ja’Marr Chase: 2 rec., 12 yards

Week 2:

• Denzel Boston: 5 rec., 95 yards, 1 TD
• KC Concepcion: 6 rec., 28 yards

Week 3:

• Jordan Addison: 5 rec., 90 yards, 1 TD
• Justin Jefferson: 2 rec., 32 yards

Week 4:

• Christian Watson: 3 rec., 47 yards
• Matthew Golden: 3 rec., 21 yards, 1 TD

Week 5:

• George Pickens: 9 rec., 130 yards, 1 TD
• Ryan Flournoy: 3 rec., 90 yards

Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point road favorite in a game with a 40.5-point over/under, giving the Steelers an implied total of 21.5 points. Not an especially attractive scoring environment, but Tampa Bay has allowed several productive receiving performances.

The concern is whether Bernard’s expanded role will translate into consistent fantasy production. He drew eight targets in Week 2 but caught only four for 35 yards, and Pittsburgh’s modest implied total limits his upside.

We also chased Antonio Williams’ projected opportunity last week and got burned, so I’m wary of making the same mistake. Still, Bernard’s 93% snap share and 35 routes provide stronger evidence of a substantial role. With Pittsburgh’s receiving corps depleted and Tampa Bay vulnerable through the air, I’m willing to take the chance on him as a flex.

Not To Start: DeMario Douglas vs. New York Jets

DeMario Douglas likely delivered his 22.5 PPR points on plenty of fantasy benches or waiver wires last week, catching four passes for 65 yards and two touchdowns against Las Vegas. With Drake Maye playing exceptional football, fantasy managers may be tempted to chase that performance.

However, Douglas averaged just 4.3 PPR points through his first four games and has drawn only 4.4 targets per game. He played just 49% of New England’s offensive snaps against Las Vegas, with his second touchdown coming late in the fourth quarter of an already lopsided game. Much like Romeo Doubs, who scored twice in Week 4 before disappointing the following week, Douglas offers a reminder of how quickly touchdown-driven fantasy production can disappear.

Here’s what opposing wide receivers have done against the Jets:

Week 1:

• Calvin Ridley: 4 rec., 39 yards
• Elic Ayomanor: 3 rec., 27 yards, 1 TD

Week 2:

• Christian Watson: 3 rec., 47 yards
• Romeo Doubs: 3 rec., 42 yards, 1 TD

Week 3:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown: 5 rec., 66 yards, 1 TD
• Jameson Williams: 3 rec., 44 yards

Week 4:

• Rome Odunze: 6 rec., 94 yards
• Luther Burden III: 3 rec., 41 yards

Week 5:

• Denzel Boston: 3 rec., 46 yards, 1 TD
• KC Concepcion: 1 rec., 5 yards

New England is a 7.5-point home favorite in a game with a 43.5-point over/under, giving the Patriots an implied total of 25.5 points.

Given the injuries and bye weeks, I certainly don’t blame anyone who needs to start Douglas. With Maye playing exceptional football, and a favorable scoring outlook this week for the Patriots, another big performance is possible. However, I’m more comfortable trusting a receiver with a dependable workload this week.

Not Much to Debate

Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are weekly must-starts at this point, but both have WR1 upside against Dallas. Watson torched Chicago for 143 yards and two touchdowns last week, while Golden added 123 yards on six catches, his second 100-yard game in three weeks. Against a struggling Cowboys’ defense, with Green Bay projected to score 27.5 points, both could deliver another monster performance.

Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Houston belongs on the bench. He’s caught just nine passes for 105 yards through five games, with declining usage and little evidence of improvement since his rookie season. At this point, a trade might be his best hope of reviving his fantasy value.

Tight Ends

To Start: Juwan Johnson at New York Giants

Dallas Goedert was originally my recommended start here, but with Jalen Hurts now ruled out and Tanner McKee taking over at quarterback, I'm considerably less comfortable trusting Philadelphia's already-struggling offense. Instead, I'm doubling down on my recommendation to start Tyler Shough by going with his tight end, Juwan Johnson.

Johnson has been one of the more dependable options at an otherwise frustrating position, averaging 5.3 receptions, 58 receiving yards, and 15.6 PPR fantasy points over his first four games. His four-catch, 16-yard performance against Minnesota last week was disappointing, but even with Shough throwing for just 96 yards, Johnson still accounted for roughly 20% of the team's targets.

Here's what opposing tight ends have done against the Giants:

Week 1:

• Jake Ferguson: 2 rec., 6 yards

Week 2:

• Terrance Ferguson: 6 rec., 54 yards, 1 TD
• Colby Parkinson: 2 rec., 15 yards

Week 3:

• Daniel Bellinger: 2 rec., 16 yards
• Gunnar Helm: 2 rec., 14 yards

Week 4:

• Trey McBride: 7 rec., 31 yards
• Elijah Higgins: 2 rec., 19 yards, 1 TD

Week 5:

• Chig Okonkwo: 4 rec., 60 yards

The Giants haven't been especially generous to tight ends, but there have been opportunities, particularly for players commanding consistent targets. The Saints are slight road favorites in a game with an over/under around 46 points, giving them an implied total approaching 24 points.

As discussed in the quarterback section, New Orleans has struggled to establish a running game, leaving much of its offensive production dependent on Shough. That should continue to create opportunities for Johnson, who has drawn at least five targets in four of five games.

Of course, there's some risk in doubling down on an offense that managed just 13 points against Minnesota last week. However, if we're confident enough in Shough to recommend starting him, it makes sense to trust one of his most dependable receiving options as well. I'm expecting a much more productive afternoon from the Saints' passing attack, with Johnson having a reasonable opportunity to return TE1 production.

Not To Start: Dalton Kincaid at Las Vegas Raiders

After two weeks, the question wasn’t whether Dalton Kincaid would finish as a TE1, but whether he’d finish as the overall TE1. He opened the season with 12 catches for 225 yards and a touchdown, looking like the breakout star fantasy managers had been waiting for.

Unfortunately, things have gone dramatically downhill since.

Over his last three games, Kincaid has caught just four passes for 52 yards on seven targets. He’s managed one catch for seven yards in each of the last two games, despite Buffalo scoring 63 points against New England and Los Angeles.

Here’s what opposing tight ends have done against Las Vegas:

Week 1:

• Greg Dulcich: 2 rec., 18 yards

Week 2:

• Oronde Gadsden II: 2 rec., 18 yards, 1 TD
• Charlie Kolar: 3 rec., 21 yards

Week 3:

• Juwan Johnson: 8 rec., 53 yards, 2 TD
• Noah Fant: 4 rec., 33 yards, 2 TD

Week 4:

• Noah Gray: 2 rec., 17 yards
• Travis Kelce: 2 rec., 15 yards

Week 5:

• Eli Raridon: 5 rec., 57 yards
• Hunter Henry: 3 rec., 44 yards, 1 TD

The matchup certainly favors Kincaid on paper. Las Vegas has allowed six touchdowns to opposing tight ends through five games, while Buffalo enters as a 5.5-point favorite in a game with a 52.5-point over/under, giving the Bills an implied total of 29 points. On paper, it’s an excellent opportunity for a rebound.

Unfortunately, the underlying usage makes that difficult to trust. Kincaid is still playing roughly two-thirds of Buffalo’s offensive snaps, but Dawson Knox has actually logged more snaps this season. His impressive 2.47 yards per route run suggests he’s still making the most of his opportunities, but that efficiency means little when Josh Allen isn’t consistently targeting him. Even Buffalo’s 37-point performance against the Rams couldn’t get Kincaid more involved.

I recommended starting Kincaid last week, believing the matchup could help turn things around. I desperately need him to bounce back myself, but I can’t keep starting a player who’s actively costing me fantasy games. His first big performance since Week 2 might very well come on my bench, but until his involvement improves, that’s a risk I’m willing to take.

Not Much to Debate

At this point, the list of tight ends who shouldn't at least warrant some weekly start/sit consideration is pretty short. However, Brenton Strange vs. Houston is becoming someone I think we can stop overthinking, especially after he made me look foolish last week.

I recommended sitting Strange against Philadelphia, and he responded with seven catches for 68 yards on eight targets, following up a seven-catch, 95-yard performance the previous week. That's 16 targets, 14 receptions and 163 yards over his last two games. Houston presents another difficult matchup, but that kind of involvement is becoming hard to ignore. Until his role changes, I'm inclined to trust the volume rather than talk myself out of starting him.

Kenyon Sadiq at New England showed exciting upside with his 100-yard breakout against Detroit in Week 3, but his playing time remains inconsistent. He played just 13 snaps before exiting last week's game with a concussion, and the Jets continue rotating Mason Taylor and Jeremy Ruckert into the offense. Even if cleared, I'd rather wait for a more dependable workload.

Recap

To Start

• QB: Tyler Shough
• RB: MarShawn Lloyd
• WR: Germie Bernard
• TE: Juwan Johnson

Not Much to Debate: Jordan Love (QB), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB), Christian Watson / Matthew Golden (WR), Brenton Strange (TE)

Not To Start

• QB: Jacoby Brissett
• RB: Jeremiyah Love
• WR: DeMario Douglas
• TE: Dalton Kincaid

Not Much to Debate: Justin Herbert (QB), Omarion Hampton (RB), Brian Thomas Jr. (WR), Kenyon Sadiq (TE)

Last Week’s Receipts (Week 5)

Scoring: Full PPR for RBs, WRs and TEs. QBs: 4-point passing TDs, -1 per INT, -2 per lost fumble.

Quarterbacks

To Start:✅ Jacoby Brissett: 24.6 | ✅ Matthew Stafford: 27.3

Not To Start:✅ Tyler Shough: 1.8 | ✅ Jalen Hurts: 13.0

Running Backs (PPR)

To Start:✅ Emanuel Wilson: 13.2 | ✅ Braelon Allen: 18.6

Not To Start:✅ David Montgomery: 1.1 | ✅ Will Shipley: 8.3

Wide Receivers (PPR)

To Start:❌ Rome Odunze: 5.0 | ❌ Antonio Williams: 6.1

Not To Start:✅ Josh Downs: 7.7 | ❌ Darius Cooper: 15.1 | ✅ Makai Lemon: 9.3

Tight Ends (PPR)

To Start:❌ Mike Gesicki: 7.4 | ❌ Dalton Kincaid: 1.7

Not To Start:❌ Brenton Strange: 13.8 | ✅ Mark Andrews: 4.8

Review

Week 5 was a significant improvement over Week 4, particularly at quarterback and running back. We identified mistakes in our process, made adjustments, and saw better results.

Will Shipley was a reasonable sit given Philadelphia’s uncertain backfield, although his injury bailed us out after he scored. He could easily have finished with a productive afternoon.

I’m more comfortable with misses at wide receiver and tight end where fantasy production is naturally more volatile. Rome Odunze remained involved, but Chicago’s complete offensive collapse was difficult to anticipate. Antonio Williams was a bad call, plain and simple. His involvement hadn’t been consistent enough to trust, and I put too much faith in the opportunity created by Stefon Diggs’ absence. Darius Cooper’s touchdown came on limited volume, which doesn’t make benching him a poor decision.

Mike Gesicki scored early and disappeared. With Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins available, I wouldn’t have started him anyway. Dalton Kincaid was our clearest mistake. We gave him another chance despite declining usage, and even Buffalo’s shootout against the Rams couldn’t revive his involvement. Meanwhile, Brenton Strange is clearly emerging as Jacksonville’s No. 2 receiving option, with enough volume to produce even in difficult matchups.

The process lessons: Routes, targets and playing time must outweigh the opportunities we hope an injury or favorable matchup will create. Kincaid and Williams exposed that mistake, while Strange showed why a dependable role can survive a difficult matchup. We also can’t retroactively grade every low-volume touchdown as good process, or let an injury validate a sit that could easily have gone the other way.

There’s reason to be encouraged by Week 5, but we’re not here for self-inflating victory laps. Good outcomes don’t automatically validate our process, and bad outcomes don’t necessarily invalidate it. Last week’s success doesn’t carry over to Week 6. Every recommendation has to earn its place again.