Starts, Sits, and Splits: Week 3

Welcome to The Delta Duo’s Third Edition of Starts, Sits, and Splits. In Week 2, we hit on 10 of our start/sit decisions and missed on 6. MC took the Split decision because Bhayshul Tuten finished as the RB12. MC had Tuten at RB27 while Wilson had him at RB42. Time for Week 3!

As always, we'll identify two Starts at each position, two Sits at each position, and a Split: one player where the two halves of the Duo are split in our decision. We’ll both make our case... and let you decide! We will also feature another Kick-A** Kicker of the Week! A kicker who, between their own skill, stadium, and opportunity, is a no questions asked, insane smash start, LOCK for those with kickers in their fantasy football league.

Week 3 Quarterbacks:

Starts:

Jared Goff – Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets: The Lions may not have looked stellar against the Bills last week, but their offense still has fire, and Jared Goff is slinging passes like it’s his job (it is…). The Lions have the 5th highest implied point total this week (27.5). In my Week 3 model, he is QB6 (17.5 projected points) in 4 pt TD formats, and QB4 (21.1 projected points) in 6 pt TD leagues. The Jets were the worst pass defense last year in EPA but have shown improvement through two weeks, coming in as the 5th best defense against the pass. Given the small sample size and quality of their opponents, I’m still taking this ranking with a grain of salt. I project 37 attempts (slightly below his season average of 38.5 attempts)for 285 yards and two carries of his own. His projected range of outcomes for points is 11-29 with a median of 17, and he has a 42% shot at a top-12 week. Start him with confidence, and watch the Lions tear up this Jets defense. [Wilson]

Kirk Cousins – Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints: Kirko Chainz is back? After two weeks with the Raiders, Kirk has shown that his brief stint in Atlanta, which was riddled with injury, was not a true reflection of his aging arm. Behind his gunslinger mentality, the Raiders find themselves sitting at 2-0 as they travel to New Orleans, where they will take on a Saints team that has struggled defending the pass this season. With the potential return of Brock Bowers, and Kirk’s ability to make things happen, I see him as a clear start this week. If the Raiders can protect him in the pocket, I see Kirk Cousins having potential for a season-long starting role. Watch out for the Raiders; if they can develop Mendoza under the veteran Cousins, they have the potential to be dangerous for years to come. [MC]

Sits:

Jameis Winston – New York Giants vs. Tennessee Titans: Listen, I love Jameis. However, we need to call a spade a spade, and this spade is not worth a start this week. The situation may look good, as the Giants take on a Titans team that was 28th against the pass last year, and that ranks 26th this year. However, this is a better real life football situation than a fantasy one. The Giants won’t need to sling the ball to win, and unfortunately, even when he does start firing, Jameis is bound to throw at least one interception. He is projected 10.4 points in 4 pt TD scoring, coming in at QB28 in my Week 3 model. It also projects 24 attempts for 182 yards and 2.2 carries of his own. His projected points range of outcomes is 5-21, with a median of 11. This is a huge range, but unfortunately carries a very low floor and lacks a high ceiling. This is the exact thing you want to avoid in fantasy. He has a 16% shot at a top-12 week. I’m excited to root for him this weekend, but as a spectator, not as someone relying on him to get me a fantasy football win. [Wilson]

Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills: What is happening in Los Angeles? The  promise of a breakout season is fading quickly. Traveling across the country to face a tough Buffalo team that has been lights out against the pass, Herbert is going to have to show something fast. We all know his promise, but the idea that Mike McDaniel would unlock his potential hasn’t come to fruition. I’m not freaking out yet, but this is the first week I’m benching him in favor of more reliable picks.  [MC]

Week 3 Running Backs:

Starts:

Travis Etienne – New Orleans Saints vs. Las Vegas Raiders: I know the situation feels bad for Etienne right now…but it isn’t as bad as it seems. In my Week 3 model, I have him projected as my RB18 in PPR scoring with 12.1 projected points. He is a solid RB2 or flex start this week. While the Raiders have struggled against the pass, they do rank 5th against the run through two games. Keep in mind though, they played against Miami and the Chargers, neither of which I consider to be high-powered offenses to this point. This is nothing against the Raiders; they have looked awesome. However, the Saints offense is an entirely different story than the Dolphins or Chargers, and I anticipate they will keep their momentum going against the Raiders with their 23.8 implied point total. Etienne has averaged 8.5 carries, 5.5 targets, a 33% carry share, and 59% of the snaps through two weeks. I expect a bump in those numbers this week, with my model projecting 10.8 carries (0.5 at the goal line), 4.7 targets, a 40% carry share, and still 59% of the snaps. His projected points range of outcomes is 6-24, with a median of 11. This is a high ceiling, and he has a 26% shot at a top-12 finish. Be brave and start him with confidence. [Wilson]

Chuba Hubbard– Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns: Chuba Hubbard might be the late round steal everyone wanted him to be. He has defined himself as the clear RB1 in Carolina, and with Jonathon Brooks now on IR, he is in position for an increase in his workload. Carolina has been a surprise through the first two weeks offensively, and Bryce Young’s passing game will continue to clear the path for Chuba to break out. Against a weaker defensive front that no longer has the anchor of  Myles Garrett following the offseason trade, I expect Carolina to continue their offensive explosiveness. Chuba has found the end zone three times through the first two weeks, and I believe he will find pay dirt once again, making him an easy start in this matchup. If he’s not careful, he may bleed into RB1 territory in future weeks. [MC]

Sits:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt – Washington Commanders vs. Seattle Seahawks: The Commanders are in the pit of despair at the moment, and I am avoiding most of their players like the plague for now. In my Week 3 model, Croskey-Merritt is projected RB35 in PPR with 8.7 projected points. The Commanders have the lowest implied points total this week (16.8) and are playing against one of the best defenses, both last year and through the first two games of the 2026 season. Across two games, he has averaged 14 carries, 1 target, a 44% carry share, and 49% of the snaps. He is not a pass catcher, and I don't think the Commanders will have much of an opportunity to run the ball if they want to try to keep up with the Seahawks. I project 12.8 carries, a 41% carry share, and 46% of the snaps. Expect similar usage to his two week averages, but with less carries per the negative game script. His projected points range of outcomes is 3-18 with a median of 8, and he has a 12% shot at a top-12 week. Avoid him altogether until Jayden Daniels returns.[Wilson]

Quinshon Judkins–Cleveland Browns vs Carolina Panthers: The flip side of the Chuba Hubbard matchup, Judkins hasn’t had the same burst following his injury last year. Performing at the NFL level requires players to be at their peak. Judkins has potential, but an offseason of rehab and two NFL games hasn’t been enough to keep him rolling at the same pace he had in his rookie year. He may creep up as the season continues, but he hasn’t shown me that he can do it consistently right now. Add in a Browns offense still struggling to find its identity and a Carolina defense that held the Falcons in check, and I think Judkins deserves a spot on your bench for Week 3. [MC]

Week 3 Wide Receivers:

Starts:

Michael Wilson – Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: Michael Wilson has had a fairly disappointing start to the season, but I think this week is where it turns around. With 12.2 projected points, he is my WR18 for Week 3. He is projected 7.1 targets, a 22% targets share, and 84% of the snaps. While the Cardinals implied point total isn’t very high (19.5) against a slightly above average pass defense, opportunities will be there in this game, and the Cardinals offense has shown they are better than what we all expected. His projected points range of outcomes is 5-24 with a median of 11, and he has a 23% shot at a top-12 week. He is a fantastic player who has been off to a slow start, but his usage shows he is still a pivotal part of this Cardinals offense, and that will pay off soon. Start him with confidence. [Wilson]

Xavier Worthy – Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins: Xavier Worthy has shown that he is more than just a speedster. The Kansas City offense has unique and terrifying players at nearly every position and an offensive mastermind at the helm. The Chiefs always find a way to get things done and against a weak Miami team, Xavier Worthy moves from a fringe start to a clear lineup-lock in Week 3. All it takes is a few breakout plays for him to find himself cresting double digits, and his target share shows that the Chiefs don’t see him as a one-off playmaker. His role in the offense is secure, and the Miami defense doesn’t have the keys to stop him.  [MC]

Sits:

Luther Burden – Chicago Bears vs. Philadelphia Eagles: What a ride the first two weeks of the Bears season have been, huh? Through the ups and downs, one thing has remained the same…Burden’s usage. Across two games, he has averaged 6 targets, a 21% target share and 73% of the snaps. It isn’t bad, but isn’t the usage we were expecting. This week, it looks even worse. They are playing the 7th best and 8th best pass defense from last year and this year, respectively. This is a consistent defense that is strong against the pass. In my Week 3 model, Burden is the WR46 in PPR scoring, and I project 5.3 targets, an 18% target share and 70% of the snaps. While Bagent has been cleared to practice, he has yet to officially clear concussion protocol. With an uncertain QB situation that could end in either Bagent or Keenum playing, I am not excited about the Bears offense or Burden’s ceiling. His projected points range of outcomes is 4-20 with a median of 8, and a 12% shot at a top-12 week. This is just a situation with a lot of unknowns, and nothing exciting to rise above the mess. Sit him and keep waiting this Burden situation out. [Wilson]

Marvin Harrison Jr. – Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers : If Harrison’s outlook doesn’t improve, he may go down as one of the greatest fantasy (and arguably NFL) draft busts of all time. In his defense, he hasn’t had the best quarterbacks under center, but I have to stop buying into the sunk cost fallacy at some point. I keep starting him with the hope he shows the brilliance he has demonstrated in one-off games, but he will be firmly entrenched on my bench in Week 3. San Francisco has shut down significantly better teams, and the Cardinals have shown they won’t give Harrison the target share he needs to make a difference in your fantasy lineup.  [MC]

Our Super Split for Week 3… KC Concepcion:

Wilson’s Data: WR22

MC’s Vibes: WR47

That’s a 25 spot difference and a glaring difference between a WR2 and a deep league flex, if even... So…What’s the deal? We’ll both make our case and you can decide:

Wilson:  It feels weird to advocate for a Browns player, but here I am. With 11.4 projected points, Concepcion’s usage speaks for itself. While the Browns offense isn’t anything too exciting, Concepcion has had more consistent target usage than his rookie counterpart Denzel Boston, with five targets and six targets versus Boston’s four targets and seven targets in Weeks 1 and 2 respectively. The target totals are even, but Concepcion is doing this on fewer snaps, averaging 69% of the snaps versus Boston’s 92%. While that snap share is concerning, it also shows that when Concepcion is on the field, he is getting the ball. It also should be noted that Boston’s inflated scores can be attributed to his two TD’s versus Concepcion’s zero, and TD’s are one of the least predictable metrics in fantasy. Concepcion is projected 5.5 targets and a 21% target share. The Panthers have been a solid offensive team so far, and the Browns will have to throw the ball to keep up with their high-powered offense. Therefore, there will be more chances for Concepcion to see targets. His projected points range of outcomes is 5-22 with a median of 11, and he has a 16% shot at a top-12 week. Add in a potential touchdown (he’ll get one eventually), and his points scored skyrockets. I think the Browns have a fire under them after a lot of bad commentary so far this season, and Concepcion will be the benefactor of a game script that could yield a high passing volume. Start him and feel surprisingly good about a Browns player.

MC: KC Concepcion’s rookie season has been off to a reasonably promising start. Despite joining one of the most question-riddled offenses in the country, he has still managed to put up respectable numbers. That being said, calling him a start for a Week 3 matchup against Carolina is not the move. The Browns don’t look to him when they need a redzone play, and his target share is insufficient to put up respectable numbers with yards and receptions alone. Deshaun Watson has looked better than expected through Week 2, but starting a rookie WR against a Carolina team that held Atlanta to a single field goal is a stretch. If he finds the end zone, he will jump up in rankings, but I’m betting against that this week. Sit.

Week 3 Tight Ends:

Starts:

Dalton Schultz – Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: Coming in as my TE2 based on my Week 3 model, Schultz is poised to have a massive week. I project 12.7 points, with 9.4 targets, a 22% targets share and 68% of the snaps. The Texans have an implied point total of 23 and are facing what has been a mediocre pass defense this year. This usage projection for Schultz is actually below his season average; this projection doesn’t even touch his ceiling. He is needed on this Texans offense that has had receiving injuries left and right. His projected points range of outcomes is 6-23 with a median of 12, which is insanely good for a TE. He has a 56% shot at a top-12 week, which is one of the highest at any position. Start him with more confidence than if you were starting a healthy CMC during his best year. Schultz is a smash start. [Wilson]

Juwan Johnson– New Orleans Saints vs. Las Vegas Raiders: Juwan Johnson has found himself  getting consistent targets and seems to be a go-to in big moments for Tyler Shough. At home following a big win against the Ravens, I think he has a clear path to a strong Week 3 performance. His target share should be  enough to make him startable, but if he finds the end zone, he may be in the top 5. Start him without doubt. [MC]

Sits:

Hunter Henry – New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars: Unfortunately, Henry is just a mediocre play in Week 3. With 8.5 projected points, he is my TE15 this week in PPR scoring. The Patriots have a 21.2 implied points total but are playing against one of the best pass defenses dating back to last season. His usage has just been average so far, and I project he sees 4.4 targets, a 16% target share, 0.9 red zone looks, and 77% of the snaps. His projected points range of outcomes is 3-17 with a median of 8, and he has a 27% shot at a top-12 week. There is just nothing to get excited about here, and I’d start other options if I had them. [Wilson]

Colston Loveland– Chicago Bears vs. Philadelphia Eagles: The Bears have a quarterback problem.  With Caleb Williams sidelined and Tyson Bagent's status for Monday's game up in the air, the high flying offense will look seriously different. Ben Johnson has clearly had a significant impact, but if you’re starting a third-string quarterback, the playbook is just not nearly as deep. I expect a heavy emphasis on the backfield and simple pass plays. This could mean more targets for Loveland, but I wouldn’t touch this offense at all against a solid Eagles defense. [MC]

Alright, our kicker model wasn’t performing like I’d hoped. I reviewed it, added some new features, and our kicking model is new and improved!

Week 3's Kick-A** Kicker is…Jake Bates!

Coming in as our #2 ranked kicker in Week 3, Bates has the accuracy, the location advantage, and the opportunity to be spectacular this week. Ford Field has an 88.8% make rate, and kicking in a dome is especially important during this weekend of forecasted bad weather. The Lions have a 27.5 implied point total, which lends itself well to extra points and field goals. Using implied point total in the model showed significant improvement, so it will help Bates this week. While Bates’ own personal accuracy rate of 84.6% is slightly below the league average of 85.07%, the make rate for home kickers at Ford Field brings his projection up significantly. If your league has kickers, go grab Bates as fast as you can, and smash start him on your team this week.