Starts, Sits, and Splits: Week 2

Welcome to The Delta Duo’s Second Edition of Starts, Sits, and Splits. In Week 1 we hit on 10 of our start/sit decisions and missed on 7. We take that as a good start in one of the hardest to predict weeks of NFL football! MC took the Split decision because Wan’Dale Robinson was a clear sit coming in at WR43 for the week… Let’s get ready for Week 2! As always, we'll identify two Starts at each position, two Sits at each position, and a Split: one player where the two halves of the Duo are split in our decision. We’ll both make our case... and let you decide! We will also feature another Kick-A** Kicker of the Week! A kicker who, between their own skill and the stadium they are playing in, is a no questions asked, insane smash start, LOCK for those with kickers in their fantasy football league.

Week 2 Quarterbacks:

Starts:

Baker Mayfield – Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns: I’m back again with Baker Mayfield, and this time, it’s going to work out. This is both Tampa’s Get Right game AND a Baker revenge game. He has only played against Cleveland once, when he was a Panther, and they lost. This game will be different. I currently have him ranked QB9 in both 4 and 6 pt TD scoring. The Buccaneers have a 24.5 point implied team total, and although Cleveland was a top 4 pass defense by EPA last year, they don’t have Myles Garrett and they didn’t show any of that defensive success last week. I project 30 attempts for 205 yards and 4.1 carries. I project 17 points in 4 pt TD but his projected points range of outcomes is 11-26 with a median of 17. He has a 44% shot of finishing as a top-12 QB and I think he will exceed that. In my data based model he is ranked QB11, but that is his perceived floor, as his rank is being brought down by a rough Week 1 which included 3 fumbles. This week will be a massive improvement. As I have heard them say all week on Good Morning Football: “Now we see if Week 1 is a liar”, and for Baker, it was. Week 2 will tell his real story. [Wilson]

Brock Purdy – San Francisco vs. Miami Dolphins: Brock Purdy just took a banged up 49er team halfway across the globe and made the Super Bowl favorites look like they don’t even belong in the playoffs. Brock Purdy’s systematic performance will easily dismantle the Miami defense. The biggest threat you have in Week 2 for Purdy is that the team steamrolls Miami so early that CMC takes too much of the offensive load. If they get ahead fast and don’t need to pass, it could detract from Purdy’s potential ceiling. He is an easy start for me. [MC]

Sits:

C.J. Stroud – Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals: With 15.5 projected points based on my Week 2 model, Stroud is my QB16 in 4 pt TD scoring, and I think that is on the upper end of his possible outcomes this week. The Texans have a 24.5 point implied total and are going up against a difficult defense to predict right now. Last year the Bengals were the 5th worst pass defense by EPA, however in Week 1 they were the 2nd best. I project 34 attempts for 244 yards, with 2.7 carries of his own. For reference last week he had 38 attempts and 2 carries. His projected range of outcomes for points is 9-25 but he has a median of 16. He has a 34% shot at a top-12 finish this week. To make matters worse, Nico Collins is out with a hamstring injury, making Stroud’s leftover group of offensive weapons much less dangerous. Unfortunately, I think he will struggle this week, and the Texans will rely more on their rush game to combat a Bengals defense off to a good start this year. [Wilson]

Tyler Shough – New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens: Week 1 showed the potential of the newly retooled 2-high Ravens defense in its matchup with the Colts. With minimal tape still available and superstars like Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith roaming the middle of the field, New Orleans is going to struggle to generate the splashy plays they relied on to stick with the Lions in Week 1. If the Ravens can generate the same pressure on the quarterback as they did in Week 1 and play the lockdown defense in the secondary that Wiggins and Humphrey are capable of, I expect a drastic drop-off for a Saints team that is on the cusp of an unexpectedly exciting season. I am higher on the Saints this year than I expected preseason, but Week 2 isn’t the time to take a gamble. [MC]

Week 2 Running Backs:

Starts:

Jadarian Price – Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: With 11.2 projected points he is my RB21 in PPR scoring, but I believe that is the low end of his range of outcomes. While Price’s usage was capped by committee running in Week 1, I believe the tape is too good to deny, and there is a good chance the Seahawks lean on his explosive playmaking against a hot Cardinals team coming off a shocking underdog win. The Seahawks have a 23.0 point implied total against a rush defense that was 8th worst last year in EPA against the rush but finished last week as the 3rd best. Usage is more predictive than efficiency in Week 1, so that is Price’s downfall, and with only one week in the books, his prediction leans exactly on his last week’s finish. However, the Seahawks have come out this week saying they expect to give him more carries. Last week he had 10 carries, a 46% carry share, 2 targets, and a 48% snap share. While the model uses those exact numbers, I project a few more carries, between 9-12, a slightly higher carry share, just narrowly eclipsing 50%, similar targets at about 2, and a snap share that also grows to above 50%, but that is mostly dependent on game script. His projected range of outcomes for points is 5-23, with a median of around 10, but the opportunity to finish high in that 20 point range is absolutely possible, especially if he can break off a big run or score. Last week he had the 5th highest first down conversion rate, and I doubt that is something the Seahawks can overlook, giving him more opportunities. I predict he has a 20% shot at a top-12 finish this week. His finish is mostly dependent on his usage, but I am willing to bet that his role expands this week and start him with confidence. [Wilson]

Kenneth Walker III – Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts: I waited to jump on the Kenneth Walker hype train; I was wrong. The perennially strong Broncos defense looked clueless in the face of the Chiefs’ dynamic offensive efforts. Despite an aging Kelce and newly recovered Mahomes, the star of the show Monday night was Kenneth Walker’s dissection of the defense. He looked strong enough to carry a team that’s ahead with his downhill running and dynamic enough to fit into the fast paced attacking offense the Chiefs dynasty has perfected. The Colts defense showed significant vulnerability in Week 1. Expect Kenneth Walker to feast. [MC]

Sits:

Kyle Monangai – Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings: He was fun and he clearly had a role in the Bears Week 1 win against the Panthers, but I don’t think that role will be as effective this week against the Vikings. With 9.3 projected points, Monangai is my RB35 in PPR scoring for Week 2. The Bears have the 5th-highest implied total of 27.0, which is exciting, but they are going up against a defense that was middle of the pack last year as a rushing defense and 7th best against the run in Week 1. Last week he had 10 carries, a 26% carry share, 2 targets and was on the field for 43% of the snaps. This week I predict a lot of the same, 10 carries, 0.7 of them at the goal line, a 30% carry share, and 42% of the snaps. His range of predicted points outcomes is 3-20, with a median around 9 and he has a 14% shot at a top-12 week. His floor is low, and my concern is that his floor is the more likely outcome this week. The Bears are exciting, but unfortunately, Monangai is more exciting on your bench this week. [Wilson]

Woody Marks –Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals: I had high hopes for Woody Marks and threw a lot of draft board stabs at him this year, but Week 1 showed us that Houston sees their backfield as the David Montgomery show. They grabbed the big name in the offseason and they're gonna ride the train until it starts to slow down. Montgomery’s performance against the Bills doesn’t indicate that any slowdown is happening soon. Woody Marks might be a viable asset later in the year when Montgomery needs some time off or in matchup friendly weeks, but even against a weaker defensive effort from the Bengals I expect Montgomery to continue carrying the load. You might hear some pundits expecting a higher load from Woody Marks this week. I’m betting on the opposite. [MC]

Our Super Split for Week Two...Bhayshul Tuten:

Wilson’s Data: Bhayshul Tuten is RB42

MC’s Vibes: Bhayshul Tuten is RB 27

That’s a 15 spot difference and a clear line between a startable flex player and an easy sit. So…what’s the deal? We’ll both make our case and you can decide:

Wilson:  The data shows that Bhayshul Tuten is an easy sit decision this week. Based on my Week 2 model he is the RB42. I’d only start him as a fringe flex in big leagues, 14-team or larger. The model projects 7.6 points. The Jaguars have a 20.5 point implied total against a defense that, while it looked bad last week, isn’t what it seemed. Last year they were a top-4 run defense, and I anticipate that they will be much closer to that in Week 2. Last week Bhayshul Tuten had 15 carries, a 47% carry share, 1 target, and played on 49% of the snaps. This week I project 10.3 carries, and a 33% carry share. I anticipate Lawrence will need to throw, and Tuten is not that pass catching back. His projected range of points outcomes is 3-18, but his median sits at only 6. He has an 11% shot at a top-12 week. Tuten is not going to be a pivotal part of this game, and the Broncos’ defense will be back to their prior form. Sit Tuten this week and start options with a much higher floor and ceiling.

MC: The Jaguars came out of Week 1 with the offense firing on all cylinders. They showed what Trevor can accomplish when he is in sync and performing the way scouts said he could when he was drafted first overall. In contrast, the Broncos looked like a different team from the AFC Championship team last year. Tuten didn’t shine in Week 1 either, but I think the Broncos are going to focus on taking away the downfield threats. Bhayshul Tuten is no Kenneth Walker, but I expect him to get more reps both in the rushing and passing game. He isn’t a lockdown RB start, but I easily find him making a way onto most people’s flex spot. 

Week 2 Wide Receivers:

Starts:

Matthew Golden – Green Bay Packers at New York Jets: You have a Golden opportunity to get this one right this week and call the breakout. With 12.4 projected points based on my Week 2 model he is my WR18 in PPR scoring this week. The Packers have a 24.5 point implied total against the Jets pass defense, which was the worst pass defense last year, but 5th last week. However, I think the reason for the pass defense improvement was not the Jets themselves, but their Week 1 opponent, the struggling Titans offense. This week is a get right game for the Packers and I believe they will do just that. Last week Golden had 12 targets and a 30% target share while being present on 82% of the snaps. Usage is more predictive than efficiency in Week 1 and WOW did his usage skyrocket. I believe this usage continues into Week 2 and he will pick apart the Jets defense. This week I project a bit of a drop at 7.6 targets and a 21% target share. However, that is dragged down in the model by his rookie year usage, and I believe he can beat those numbers easily. His range of projected points outcomes is 6-24 with a median of 12. He has a 21% shot at a top-12 week and I am starting him with confidence and excitement in all of my leagues. [Wilson]

Quentin Johnston – Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders: This is a get right game for a Los Angeles team that’s reeling from a tough Week 1 performance. The offense didn’t gel and Herbert definitely didn’t deliver on everyone’s expectations (including my own) for the Mike McDaniel led offense. I’m chalking Week 1 up to a much improved Cardinal team and a few bumps in the gameplan. Home again in SoFi against a beatable Raiders team, I’m expecting Quentin Johnston’s chemistry with Herbert to come through and a few downfield connections will be the difference maker to push Quentin Johnston well into the starting conversation this week.  [MC]

Sits:

Malik Washington – Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers: I know what you’re thinking…”How dare you?!” but Washington is here for a few reasons… First, I fall back on my WR study from the offseason. Historically, based on his profile and at this stage in his career, Washington only has a 3.3% chance of getting a real sustained role on the offense and a 7.5% chance of getting a usable target share (80+ target season). Last week he had 8 targets, and while that is a good start, I don’t believe it will continue. There are other very talented WRs on that team (Caleb Douglas anyone?) and while he just barely out targeted Douglas in Week 1 (8 to 7), statistically Douglas will overtake his target share very soon, and I believe this could be the week. With 10.7 projected points based on my Week 2 model, he is my WR34 in PPR scoring. The Dolphins have the 3rd lowest implied point total (16.5) and are going against the 12th best pass defense of Week 1, a pass defense that shut down what was widely considered one of the best offenses in the league in the LA Rams. I project 5.9 targets, and a 22% target share. His projected range of points outcomes is 5-20 with a median of 10 and he has a 14% shot at a top-12 week. Let him ride your bench this week in what is a bad matchup for the Dolphins, and a statistically bad bet to make on a WR at this point in his career.  [Wilson]

Brian Thomas Jr.  – Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos: Parker Washington has solidified himself as the go to target for Trevor Lawrence and the former potential superstar has dropped to the fringes of most fantasy players’ rosters. Don’t let Week 1 fool you, the Broncos defense is capable and they will step up in front of a loud home crowd at Mile High Stadium. I don’t expect the same offensive performance from the Jaguars and if Brian Thomas couldn’t find himself more than 3 receptions for 40 yards last week, I don’t see much more happening in Week 2. I’m putting Brian Thomas squarely on the bench, but I hope I’m wrong because I still think his ceiling could land him among the top tiers of receivers in the weeks to come. [MC]

Week 2 Tight Ends:

Starts:

Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens vs. New Orleans Saints: This feels bold, I know. It even feels that way for me but I am confident. With 11.1 projected points based on my Week 2 model, Andrews is my TE2 in PPR scoring. For starters, it is a great matchup: The Ravens have the 4th highest implied point total (27.5) and are going against an average pass defense from last year that was ranked 7 spots worse in Week 1 than their previous year against the pass. Last week Andrews had 6 targets, a 25% target share and 72% of the snaps and the Ravens are now most likely missing 2 of their best passing weapons in Lane and Flowers. His projection this week in the model is slightly lower than last week, with 5.1 targets, a 20% target share, and 0.9 red zone looks. I think the target share will most likely be higher than that projection based on the missing weapons. His projected points range of outcomes is 5-20 with a median of 11, and he has a whopping 50% shot at a top-12 finish. He is even safer than his projection reads, as more of his weeks finish near the top of his range than the bottom. He is a smash start this week. [Wilson]

Isaiah Likely – New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams: Likely lived in the shadows of Mark Andrews for the first several years of his career and yet he still found a way to be a difference maker. After following Harbaugh to New York I had a lot of questions about his effectiveness with Jaxson Dart under center and a host of other weapons crowding the target share. After Week 1, I’m confident he can find himself as a weekly starter on your roster. With back-to-back prime-time weeks, Likely will show up on the field and in your lineup. [MC]

Sits:

Colston Loveland – Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings: This is wildly unpopular, I know. Loveland has been a hot “buy low” candidate all week on X. And while I actually think he may be, this week just ain’t it… With 7.6 projected points based on my Week 2 model he is my TE18 in PPR scoring. Usage is key, and he only had an 8% target share. While he was out there on 82% of snaps, and that is reassuring, my concern is that when you look at Caleb Williams’ read progression from Week 1, he pretty much either threw to his first read or scrambled. While that worked for the Bears offense as a whole, my concern is that Loveland is very rarely the first read, and the Vikings are not going to give Williams time to work through his progressions this week, especially not more than last week against the Panthers. I project 3.6 targets, an 11% target share, and 0.8 red zone looks. His projected points range of outcomes is 3-17 with a median of 7, and he has a 25% shot at a top-12 week. As much as I hate to say it, I’d sit him this week if you have other options. If you don’t want to, at least take stock in the fact that I don’t think he will have another zero point finish this week, but I don’t think it will be a lot more than that unless he can snag a touchdown. [Wilson]

AJ Barner– Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals: Seattle comes out of Week 1 banged up at quarterback and facing a Cardinals team that surprised the league with their performance against a high-powered Chargers offense. Drew Lock may be one of the most capable backup quarterbacks in the league, but I expect him to find the comfort picks downfield. With JSN continuing to make defenders look silly and a new dynamic backfield, I expect Barner to fall out of the top 12 TE starts this week. There’s more to see with the Cardinals’ defense and I’m not taking a shot on a fringe TE with a backup quarterback.  [MC]

After a rough finish from our Kick A** Kicker of Week 1 (Shrader finished K21…) we are back and ready to redeem ourselves!!

Week 2's Kick-A** Kicker is…Eddy Pineiro!

Coming in as our #1 ranked kicker in Week 2, Pineiro is going to be fantastic this week. The San Francisco 49ers have a 91.7% venue rate for home kickers. Pineiro is 89.2% on his 158 career kicks. The league average from 2023-2026 (the range used in our model) is 85.17% so Pineiro has shown sustained accuracy above the league average. The 49ers are running hot after beating the LA Rams in Melbourne, and that won’t stop in Week 2. Whether it is extra points or field goals, Pineiro will make them with confidence and if your league has kickers, grab Pineiro off waivers and smash start him as our Kick-A** Kicker of the week.