The Great Debate: To Start or Not To Start? Week 5

“We cannot change the cards we are dealt, just how we play the hand.” -  Randy Pausch

The first bye weeks have arrived, with Carolina and Kansas City off, and injuries have left plenty of fantasy managers holding some ugly hands. The choices are getting harder, and the consequences of getting them wrong are growing.

This week, we're weighing enticing opportunities against offenses we don't trust, deciding when to chase potential upside, and when to let someone else take the gamble. Some recommendations will require more faith than others, but that's the reality of navigating a difficult fantasy week.

You'll find a full recap of this week's recommendations, along with last week's receipts and lessons learned, at the end of the article.

As always, if your specific dilemma isn't covered, consult your preferred rankings or send me your start/sit questions @FFrealitycheck on X.

Quarterbacks

To Start: Jacoby Brissett vs. Detroit Lions

I recommended Brissett as one of the QBs to start last week, and he promptly burned me. So naturally, I’m recommending him again. What could possibly go wrong?

Fortunately, he faces a Detroit defense that has allowed an NFL-high 1,308 passing yards and 11 touchdowns through four games. Here’s what opposing quarterbacks have done against the Lions:

• Week 1: Tyler Shough, 410 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT
• Week 2: Josh Allen, 248 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT (69 rushing yards, 2 rushing TD)
• Week 3: Geno Smith, 321 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT
• Week 4: Bryce Young, 329 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

The Cardinals are 5.5-point underdogs in a game with a 54.5-point over/under, tied for the highest of Week 5. Their implied total is 24.5 points.

This isn’t a foolproof play, as Brissett often plays the fool. Arizona’s offensive line is a mess, and he’s perfectly capable of squandering another favorable matchup. But if Geno Smith can throw for 321 yards and three touchdowns against Detroit, I’m willing to roll the dice. Nobody is debating whether Michael Wilson or Trey McBride are good plays this week, and if they’re producing, Brissett should be too.

To Start: Matthew Stafford vs. Buffalo Bills

Despite orchestrating an impressive fourth-quarter comeback in Philadelphia last week, Stafford didn’t do much for our fantasy teams after scoring 27.0 and 20.9 fantasy points in Weeks 2 and 3.

Stafford turned 51 pass attempts into 317 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions, adding 10 rushing yards for just 9.7 fantasy points. He could have easily had another big day, but Kyren Williams scored on two short touchdown runs, while Puka Nacua added a two-yard rushing score.

Now he gets a Buffalo defense that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 274 passing yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns through four games:

• Week 1: C.J. Stroud, 274 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT
• Week 2: Jared Goff, 327 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT
• Week 3: Justin Herbert, 226 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
• Week 4: Drake Maye, 269 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT (54 rushing yards)

The Rams are 3-point home favorites in a game with a 54.5-point over/under, tied for the highest of Week 5. Their implied total is 28.75 points.

Stafford has thrown for over 300 yards in three straight games. With Nacua healthy again and a favorable matchup in what should be a high-scoring game, I’m betting those yards translate into a few more passing touchdowns this week.

Not To Start: Tyler Shough vs. Minnesota Vikings

Shough is leading the NFL with 180 pass attempts while throwing for 1,203 yards and 9 touchdowns through four games. Now he faces an undefeated Viking defense that has been problematic for opposing quarterbacks:

• Week 1: Jordan Love, 387 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
• Week 2: Caleb Williams, 138 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT (42 rushing yards); Tyson Bagent, 54 yards
• Week 3: Baker Mayfield, 217 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
• Week 4: Malik Willis, 85 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

New Orleans’ nonexistent running game makes this offense one-dimensional, and Shough’s situation probably compares more closely to Jordan Love’s than the other quarterbacks Minnesota has faced.

Minnesota leads the NFL in pressure rate (45.8%) and blitz rate (67.3%). That’s concerning for a Saints’ offensive line that has already allowed 69 pressures, with Shough taking 12 sacks through four games.

The Saints are 2.5-point home underdogs in a game with a 41.5-point over/under, giving them an implied total of just 19.5 points.

Shough could certainly overcome the matchup through sheer passing volume, but if I have a decent alternative, I’m willing to take the risk of that happening on my bench.

Not To Start: Jalen Hurts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (London)

Hurts has thrown for just 246 yards over his last two games, while Philadelphia’s offense managed only 172 total yards and went 0-for-12 on third down against the Rams last week. Now the Eagles head to London to face a Jacksonville defense that has allowed just three passing touchdowns while recording six interceptions through four games.

Opposing quarterbacks against Jacksonville:

• Week 1: Deshaun Watson, 205 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (38 rushing yards)
• Week 2: Bo Nix, 288 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
• Week 3: Drake Maye, 199 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT
• Week 4: Joe Burrow, 428 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT (1 rushing TD)

The Eagles are 7.5-point underdogs in a game with a 41.5-point over/under, giving them an implied total of just 17 points.

Philadelphia’s offensive line is in shambles, DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley are both out again, and even Dontayvion Wicks is now dealing with injuries. Hurts still has the rushing ability to salvage a fantasy performance, but he’s averaging just 26 rushing yards per game this season.

You probably didn’t draft Hurts expecting to consider benching him this early, but given the state of Philadelphia’s offense and this matchup, I’d seriously consider a healthier quarterback in a better situation this week.

Running Backs

To Start: Emanuel Wilson vs. San Francisco 49ers

I wish I had recommended starting Wilson last week. He rewarded those who trusted him with 120 total yards and two touchdowns on 24 touches against the Chargers.

San Francisco vs. opposing RBs this season:

• Week 1: Kyren Williams, 11 carries, 41 yards, 1 TD (3 rec., 24 yards); Blake Corum, 10 carries, 54 yards
• Week 2: De’Von Achane, 20 carries, 74 yards (3 rec., 19 yards)
• Week 3: Jeremiyah Love, 21 carries, 90 yards (5 rec., 19 yards, 1 TD)
• Week 4: RJ Harvey, 7 carries, 25 yards (10 rec., 68 yards); J.K. Dobbins, 11 carries, 40 yards

Seattle is a 3-point home favorite in a game with a 45.5-point over/under, giving the Seahawks an implied total of 24.25 points.

Wilson has handled at least 20 carries in two of his last three games, and with Zach Charbonnet still out and Jadarian Price on IR, we can at least hope that he will remain Seattle’s primary back. George Holani handles more of the passing-down work, but Wilson caught three passes last week, and the 49ers just allowed RJ Harvey to catch 10 passes last week.

Wilson could certainly burn us now that we’re trusting him, and the matchup isn’t ideal. But with bye weeks upon us, I’m willing to roll the dice that last week’s high-volume role and goal-line opportunities carry over for at least one more week.

To Start: Braelon Allen vs. Cleveland Browns

I wish I hadn’t recommended starting Allen last week. However, while the outcome was disappointing, the process wasn’t. With Breece Hall sidelined, Allen played 30 of the Jets’ 32 offensive snaps (93.8%), handled all 14 carries for 59 yards, and caught both of his targets for another 8 yards. Unfortunately, the Jets ran only 32 plays all game, compared to Chicago’s 89.

Cleveland vs. opposing RBs this season:

• Week 1: Bhayshul Tuten, 15 carries, 66 yards (1 rec., 22 yards)
• Week 2: Bucky Irving, 17 carries, 89 yards (4 rec., 1 yard)
• Week 3: Chuba Hubbard, 19 carries, 82 yards (4 rec., 28 yards)
• Week 4: Jaylen Warren, 17 carries, 93 yards (3 rec., 33 yards)

The Jets are 2.5-point home favorites in a game with a 39.5-point over/under, giving them an implied total of just 21 points.

Cleveland hasn’t allowed a running back touchdown through four games but has consistently surrendered decent rushing yardage. The Browns are also dealing with injuries to defensive tackles Mason Graham and Mike Hall Jr.

The obvious risk is New York’s dysfunctional offense, which could once again limit Allen’s opportunities regardless of his workload share. But with Hall ruled out for a second straight week, I’m willing to trust the process again. Allen’s usage last week was everything we could have asked for, outside of the Jets actually staying on the field long enough to let him produce.

Not To Start: David Montgomery at Tennessee Titans

If you’ve been starting Montgomery over the last three weeks, I don’t need to tell you how awful he’s been for fantasy. Since his three-touchdown opener, he’s managed just 67 rushing yards on 27 carries (2.5 YPC) while splitting Houston’s backfield with Woody Marks.

Tennessee vs. opposing RBs this season:

• Week 1: Breece Hall, 22 carries, 102 yards, 1 TD; Braelon Allen, 10 carries, 40 yards
• Week 2: Tank Bigsby, 13 carries, 33 yards, 1 TD; Will Shipley, 7 carries, 24 yards
• Week 3: Cam Skattebo, 20 carries, 60 yards (3 rec., 40 yards); Najee Harris, 9 carries, 52 yards
• Week 4: Derrick Henry, 23 carries, 73 yards, 1 TD

Houston is a 7.5-point road favorite in a game with a 37.5-point over/under, giving the Texans an implied total of 22.5 points.

The favorable game script is tempting, but Houston’s offensive line ranks 30th overall according to PFF, and Montgomery has been contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 55% of his carries. Now they face a Tennessee defensive front featuring Jeffery Simmons and John Franklin-Myers, assuming both are healthy enough to play.

Montgomery could certainly fall into the end zone against the winless Titans, but that’s about all we can hope for right now.

Not To Start: Will Shipley at Jacksonville Jaguars (London)

With Saquon Barkley week-to-week due to a hamstring injury and Tank Bigsby on IR, Shipley was probably a popular waiver-wire pickup this week, and understandably so. But, in reality, we have no idea how Philadelphia plans to divide its backfield touches without them.  Philly also promoted RBs Carson Steele and Dameon Pierce from the practice squad, so there is no guarantee Shipley has the backfield to himself.

Jacksonville vs. opposing RBs this season:

• Week 1: Quinshon Judkins, 12 carries, 33 yards (2 rec., 17 yards)
• Week 2: Jonah Coleman, 10 carries, 39 yards, 1 TD (3 rec., 19 yards); J.K. Dobbins, 10 carries, 36 yards
• Week 3: Rhamondre Stevenson, 7 carries, 22 yards (3 rec., 16 yards); TreVeyon Henderson, 8 carries, 23 yards
• Week 4: Chase Brown, 9 carries, 10 yards (11 rec., 71 yards)

The Eagles are 7.5-point underdogs in a game with a 41.5-point over/under, giving them an implied total of just 17 points.

Jacksonville has allowed opposing RBs just 2.8 yards per carry and one rushing touchdown through four games. Philadelphia’s depleted offensive line and struggling offense aren’t helping matters, either.

I actually like Shipley as a talent. He was a five-star recruit coming out of high school and has barely had an opportunity to prove himself in the NFL. Maybe he takes over this backfield and surprises us, particularly as a receiver against a defense that just allowed Chase Brown 11 catches. But we have even less information about this backfield than we did with Ollie Gordon last week, and the strategy is the same. Leave Shipley on the bench, see how the workload shakes out, and potentially start him next week against Carolina if we like what we see.

Wide Receivers

To Start: Rome Odunze at Green Bay Packers

Odunze finally delivered a respectable fantasy performance last week, catching 6 of 7 targets for 94 yards against the Jets. It was encouraging to see him produce with Tyson Bagent at quarterback, especially after managing just 139 yards over his first three games.

Green Bay vs. opposing WRs this season:

• Week 1: Justin Jefferson, 8 rec., 92 yards, 2 TD
• Week 2: Garrett Wilson, 5 rec., 57 yards, 1 TD; Adonai Mitchell, 6 rec., 63 yards
• Week 3: Drake London, 9 rec., 194 yards
• Week 4: Chris Godwin, 6 rec., 31 yards; Emeka Egbuka, 2 rec., 13 yards

Chicago is a 1.5-point road favorite in a game with a 45.5-point over/under, giving the Bears an implied total of 23.5 points.

Green Bay has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to perimeter WRs, and the coverage matchup is particularly interesting. The Packers use two-high safety looks on 62.1% of plays, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. Odunze has produced 2.51 yards per route against two-high coverage this season, with his production improving considerably over the past two weeks.

Bagent will start again this week, and Odunze was second on the team with seven targets in his first start. That’s encouraging, although we’ve all learned how frustrating it can be trying to predict which Bears receivers will produce each week. There’s certainly a chance someone else dominates the opportunities, but Odunze’s matchup and performance with Bagent last week are enough for me to take the chance.

To Start: Antonio Williams vs. New York Giants

Williams caught four passes for 64 yards and a touchdown in his NFL debut with Jayden Daniels at quarterback, but hasn’t done much since. With Terry McLaurin sidelined last week, he led Washington’s receivers with 30 routes and eight targets, catching just three for 21 yards. He also had an 87-yard touchdown called back by a penalty.

New York vs. opposing WRs this season:

• Week 1: CeeDee Lamb, 5 rec., 44 yards, 1 TD
• Week 2: Davante Adams, 8 rec., 195 yards, 2 TD
• Week 3: Wan’Dale Robinson, 7 rec., 57 yards, 1 TD; Carnell Tate, 6 rec., 58 yards
• Week 4: Michael Wilson, 7 rec., 95 yards

Washington is a 3.5-point home favorite in a game with a 42.5-point over/under, giving the Commanders an implied total of 23 points.

Stefon Diggs (hamstring) is out, while McLaurin (hamstring) remains uncertain. That could leave Williams with another substantial workload, and Daniels’ return should help after Washington was forced to use its third-string quarterback last week.

The Giants have been playing better defensively, and Williams still faces competition from Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown, especially if McLaurin plays. This certainly isn’t a comfortable start, but with injuries and bye weeks forcing some difficult lineup decisions, Williams offers enough potential opportunity to justify a gamble.

Not To Start: Josh Downs at Pittsburgh Steelers

Downs was gaining momentum heading into last week, catching seven passes for 72 yards in Week 2 after Alec Pierce went down, followed by five catches for 77 yards on 11 targets in Week 3. I even recommended starting him against Washington last week, but he rewarded us with just three catches for 16 yards. Daniel Jones struggled throughout the strange London game, throwing for just 143 yards as Indianapolis once again leaned on Jonathan Taylor and its running game.

Pittsburgh vs. opposing WRs this season:

• Week 1: Drake London, 2 rec., 29 yards
• Week 2: Romeo Doubs, 3 rec., 96 yards
• Week 3: Ja’Marr Chase, 9 rec., 98 yards, 1 TD; Tee Higgins, 6 rec., 90 yards, 1 TD
• Week 4: Denzel Boston, 4 rec., 89 yards; KC Concepcion, 5 rec., 64 yards

Indianapolis is a 2.5-point road underdog in a game with a 44.5-point over/under, giving the Colts an implied total of just 21 points.

Pittsburgh has been vulnerable to perimeter receivers, but has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to slot receivers, where Downs primarily operates. Keenan Allen (groin) could also return this week, potentially cutting into his opportunities.

Downs is talented enough to produce regardless of the matchup, and his ability to consistently get open isn’t the problem. The bigger concern is whether Daniel Jones will consistently get him the football. Even last week, against what looked like an excellent matchup with Allen sidelined, that didn’t happen.

You might not have a better option with injuries and bye weeks piling up, but I’m not particularly confident in Downs until we see improved QB play.

Not To Start: Darius Cooper and Makai Lemon at Jacksonville Jaguars (London)

With DeVonta Smith expected to miss another game and Dontayvion Wicks dealing with an injury, Cooper and Lemon are suddenly legitimate fantasy considerations. Cooper has scored three touchdowns over his last three games, including two against the Rams last week, while Lemon drew a season-high six targets. However, I’m pumping the brakes on trusting either one.

Jacksonville vs. opposing WRs this season:

• Week 1: Denzel Boston, 2 rec., 59 yards, 1 TD; KC Concepcion, 4 rec., 43 yards
• Week 2: Jaylen Waddle, 8 rec., 138 yards; Courtland Sutton, 3 rec., 25 yards
• Week 3: Mack Hollins, 6 rec., 87 yards
• Week 4: Tee Higgins, 11 rec., 157 yards; Dohnte Meyers, 7 rec., 82 yards

Philadelphia is a 7.5-point underdog in London in a game with a 41.5-point over/under, giving the Eagles an implied total of just 17 points.

The matchup isn’t necessarily the problem. Jacksonville has allowed some big receiving performances, and Cooper played 90% of Philadelphia’s offensive snaps last week and drew seven targets, while Lemon played 74% and drew six. If Wicks is out or limited, both could see even more opportunities, although Dallas Goedert’s potential return could complicate matters.

The problem is trusting Philadelphia’s offense to take advantage. Jalen Hurts threw for just 93 yards last week, and the Eagles managed only 172 total yards while going 0-for-12 on third down.

If you picked up Cooper or are considering Lemon because injuries and bye weeks have left you desperate, I understand. Either could prove me wrong, particularly if Philadelphia is forced to throw while trailing. But much like Will Shipley, we’re trying to predict how an injury-ravaged offense will distribute opportunities when it hasn’t given us much reason for optimism. I’d rather see how things shake out before trusting either one in my lineup.

Tight Ends

To Start: Mike Gesicki at Miami Dolphins

Gesicki has scored a touchdown in three of four games, despite inconsistent target volume (7, 0, 3, 5). His snap share rose from 35% in Week 2 to 51% in Week 3 after Andrei Iosivas landed on IR, then climbed to 62% last week in a game where Ja’Marr Chase exited in the second quarter.

Miami vs. opposing TEs this season:

• Week 1: Michael Mayer, 6 rec., 32 yards
• Week 2: George Kittle, 4 rec., 80 yards, 1 TD
• Week 3: Travis Kelce, 2 rec., 59 yards, 1 TD; Noah Gray, 3 rec., 39 yards
• Week 4: T.J. Hockenson, 13 rec., 119 yards

Cincinnati is a 6.5-point road favorite in a game with a 42.5-point over/under, giving the Bengals an implied total of 24.5 points.

With Tee Higgins (groin/neck) likely out and Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) uncertain, Joe Burrow may have little choice but to lean even more heavily on Gesicki this week.

Of course, Gesicki has shown us throughout his career just how low his floor can be, and he’s relied heavily on touchdowns for his fantasy production this season. But with injuries and bye weeks creating problems at tight end, he’s an intriguing streaming option with a favorable matchup and a potential path to more opportunities.

To Start: Dalton Kincaid at Los Angeles Rams

If we were judging Kincaid solely on his first two games, this wouldn’t even be a debate. He caught 12 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown, but has followed that up with just three catches for 45 yards on five targets over the last two weeks. More concerningly, his route share dropped from an average of 67% through Week 3 to just 49% last week.

Los Angeles vs. opposing TEs this season:

• Week 1: Luke Farrell, 2 rec., 19 yards; George Kittle, 2 rec., 12 yards
• Week 2: Isaiah Likely, 5 rec., 33 yards
• Week 3: Nate Adkins, 1 rec., 8 yards, 1 TD
• Week 4: Zach Ertz, 2 rec., 13 yards

Buffalo is a 3-point road underdog in a game with a 54.5-point over/under, tied for the highest of Week 5. The Bills have an implied total of 25.75 points.

The Rams’ numbers against tight ends look intimidating, but context is key here. Kittle was being managed in his return from injury, the Giants lost Jaxson Dart early, Denver barely utilizes Evan Engram, and the Eagles were without Dallas Goedert last week.

DJ Moore (shoulder) could miss Monday’s game or be limited if he plays, potentially creating more opportunities for Kincaid. However, Moore also exited early last week, and it was Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir who benefited.

Kincaid is by no means a safe start, but Bills head coach Joe Brady has acknowledged that the team needs to do a better job getting him involved. Josh Allen’s passing production has also fallen off considerably over the last two weeks, but I’m not willing to assume that trend will continue.

With two Super Bowl contenders meeting in what could be a high-scoring shootout, I’m willing to give Kincaid another chance, even if it ends up making me look foolish.

Not To Start: Brenton Strange vs. Philadelphia Eagles (London)

Strange rewarded fantasy managers who trusted him against Cincinnati last week, catching seven of eight targets for 95 yards. However, the Bengals have been extremely generous to opposing tight ends, and Strange had managed just seven catches for 72 yards over his first three games.

Philadelphia vs. opposing TEs this season:

• Week 1: Chig Okonkwo, 2 rec., 16 yards; John Bates, 2 rec., 13 yards
• Week 2: Gunnar Helm, 2 rec., 13 yards
• Week 3: Colston Loveland, 4 rec., 31 yards; Sam Roush, 1 rec., 16 yards
• Week 4: Tyler Higbee, 5 rec., 67 yards

Jacksonville is a 7.5-point favorite in London in a game with a 41.5-point over/under, giving the Jaguars an implied total of 24.5 points.

The Eagles haven’t allowed a tight end touchdown through four games, but their numbers are somewhat misleading. They haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of tight ends, Loveland nearly scored in Week 3, and Higbee had a productive afternoon last week.

Strange could certainly make me regret this recommendation, particularly if his increased involvement continues. However, Jacksonville has plenty of receivers competing for targets, including Parker Washington, who drew just three last week after commanding a 27% target share through the first three games. I’m expecting him to get more involved again, and with the Jaguars favored to win comfortably, I’m betting Strange comes back down to earth a bit.

Not To Start: Mark Andrews at Atlanta Falcons

Andrews was on his way to a strong fantasy performance last week, catching four passes for 21 yards and a touchdown in the first half against Tennessee. Unfortunately, Lamar Jackson’s ankle injury derailed that momentum. With Tyler Huntley taking over in the second half, Andrews managed just one more catch for six yards, and Baltimore failed to score another point.

Atlanta vs. opposing TEs this season:

• Week 1: Pat Freiermuth, 5 rec., 46 yards, 1 TD
• Week 2: Darren Waller, 3 rec., 33 yards, 2 TD
• Week 3: Tucker Kraft, 4 rec., 26 yards; Jonnu Smith, 2 rec., 16 yards
• Week 4: Juwan Johnson, 6 rec., 59 yards

Baltimore is a 3-point road underdog in a game with a 43.5-point over/under, giving the Ravens an implied total of just 20.25 points.

The matchup is actually encouraging, particularly considering the three touchdowns Atlanta has allowed to tight ends. However, with Jackson (ankle) unlikely to play, Huntley is expected to start, and I’m considerably less optimistic about Baltimore’s ability to sustain drives and create scoring opportunities.

Interestingly, Andrews has enjoyed some huge games with Huntley in the past. In his four starts back in 2021, Andrews had at least 73 receiving yards in every game, including a 136-yard, two-touchdown performance against Green Bay. However, in Huntley’s two starts last season, Andrews managed just 24 and 34 receiving yards.

Perhaps Huntley leans on Andrews as a safety valve, and with a full week to prepare, the offense looks considerably better than it did in the second half against Tennessee. There’s certainly a chance this recommendation backfires, but given what we saw from the offense with Huntley at QB last week, I’m fine avoiding Andrews this week.

Recap

To Start

• QB: Jacoby Brissett, Matthew Stafford
• RB: Emanuel Wilson, Braelon Allen
• WR: Rome Odunze, Antonio Williams
• TE: Mike Gesicki, Dalton Kincaid

Not To Start

• QB: Tyler Shough, Jalen Hurts
• RB: David Montgomery, Will Shipley
• WR: Josh Downs, Darius Cooper / Makai Lemon
• TE: Brenton Strange, Mark Andrews

Last Week’s Receipts (Week 4)

Scoring: Full PPR for RBs, WRs and TEs. QBs: 4-point passing TDs, -2 per INT, -2 per lost fumble.

Quarterbacks

• To Start: Kyler Murray (11.5), Jacoby Brissett (10.4)
• Not To Start: Drake Maye (26.2), Justin Herbert (9.6)

Running Backs (PPR)

• To Start: Braelon Allen (8.7), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (7.0)
• Not To Start: Omarion Hampton (13.3), Ollie Gordon (18.0), Jaylen Wright (0.7)

Wide Receivers (PPR)

• To Start: Josh Downs (4.6), Stefon Diggs (8.5)
• Not To Start: Wan’Dale Robinson (11.0), Carnell Tate (21.5), Malik Washington (12.0), Chris Bell (0.0)

Tight Ends (PPR)

• To Start: Darren Waller (6.6), Tucker Kraft (16.5)
• Not To Start: Isaiah Likely (13.6), AJ Barner (2.2)

Review and Lessons Learned

Week 4 wasn’t good. Period. The biggest lessons involve distinguishing favorable matchups from trustworthy offenses, and recognizing that a large share of an offense doesn’t necessarily mean enough opportunities to produce.

Our biggest process mistakes were among the starts. Kyler Murray and Jacoby Brissett had favorable matchups, but neither had earned our trust. Similarly, we overvalued Josh Downs’ opportunity while underestimating Daniel Jones’ struggles. I also recommended Jacory Croskey-Merritt despite questioning his talent, putting too much faith in projected volume. Braelon Allen earned exactly the role we wanted, but the Jets ran just 32 plays. Perhaps waiting a week would’ve been wiser.

I’m comfortable with most of our sits. Drake Maye’s breakout was difficult to anticipate given his first three games, although Buffalo was a much friendlier matchup than Seattle was for Justin Herbert. Omarion Hampton needed a touchdown to salvage his day despite limited usage. Waiting on Miami’s unsettled backfield was reasonable, while Carnell Tate benefited from additional opportunities after Lamar Jackson’s injury. Miami’s receivers didn’t make us regret our decisions, either.

Darren Waller was a bad beat in a favorable situation, while Stefon Diggs’ opportunity was affected by Marcus Mariota’s injury. Tucker Kraft delivered the bounce-back we anticipated, and avoiding AJ Barner’s inflated Week 3 production worked. Isaiah Likely was a miss, as our concerns about Jameis Winston outweighed an excellent matchup.

Moving forward, I need to be more skeptical of appealing matchups involving unreliable quarterbacks, more disciplined about recommending players whose talent I question, and more mindful of an offense’s ability to generate enough opportunities, regardless of individual usage.